Navy at Air Force NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Navy by 6.4 points, giving them a 65% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 57.1 combined points, with Air Force at 25.5 and Navy at 31.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Air Force's margin lands between -28.4 and +15.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Air Force +6.4 / Navy -6.4 Moneyline: Air Force +182 / Navy -182 Win probability: Air Force 35.4% / Navy 64.6% Projected total: 57.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Air Force: 1403.8, Navy: 1580.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Air Force Navy ----------------- --------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -100.0 -100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -1.0 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +2.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Navy 31.8 -- Air Force 25.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Air Force margin -28.4 -17.8 -6.4 +5.2 +15.7 Total points 36.2 46.1 57.4 68.5 78.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: AIR FORCE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Liam Szarka QB Passing yards 177.8 94-286 Pass attempts 16.2 8-22 Completions 10.2 4-14 Passing TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 88.7 49-141 Rushing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Owen Allen RB Rushing yards 53.4 13-101 Carries 12.7 7-20 Rushing TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Jonah Dawson WR Receiving yards 52.2 17-85 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Rocco Conti RB Rushing yards 12.0 -- Carries 4.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Blake Fletcher LB Tackles 8.1 5-11 Dallas Daley LB Tackles 6.5 4-9 Isaac Hubert LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jaylin Reese LB Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ NAVY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jackson Gutierrez QB Passing yards 156.1 72-242 Pass attempts 16.9 8-24 Completions 9.1 3-13 Passing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Rushing yards 34.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Luke Hutchison WR Receiving yards 45.7 10-75 Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Joshua Guerin WR Receiving yards 36.8 1-56 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charles Robinson WR Rushing yards 8.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 36.7 1-58 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Coleman Cauley LB Tackles 7.7 5-11 Giuseppe Sessi S Tackles 7.7 6-10 Griffen Willis DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ MarcAnthony Parker LB Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Air Force recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Navy recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 AF 31 NAVY 34 NAVY 2024 NAVY 34 AF 7 NAVY 2023 AF 17 NAVY 6 AF ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10366