Syracuse at UConn NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UConn by 5.9 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.6 combined points, with UConn at 32.8 and Syracuse at 27.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UConn's margin lands between -16.3 and +28.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UConn -5.9 / Syracuse +5.9 Moneyline: UConn -174 / Syracuse +174 Win probability: UConn 63.5% / Syracuse 36.5% Projected total: 59.6 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UConn: 1454.9, Syracuse: 1333.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UConn Syracuse ----------------- ----- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -11.4 +43.3 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.4 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Syracuse 27.0 -- UConn 32.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- UConn margin -16.3 -5.7 +5.8 +17.1 +28.2 Total points 38.8 48.7 59.9 70.8 81.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UCONN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kalieb Osborne QB Passing yards 144.6 60-231 Pass attempts 17.8 9-29 Completions 10.2 4-17 Passing TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 42.6 3-72 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Dashun Reeder RB Rushing yards 59.6 19-105 Carries 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Kenji Christian RB Rushing yards 51.2 10-86 Carries 9.7 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Receiving yards 24.0 5-44 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Shamar Porter WR Receiving yards 32.6 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Emanuel Ross WR Receiving yards 30.9 -- Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Ryder Treadway WR Receiving yards 28.0 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ K'Von Sherman LB Tackles 6.9 4-8 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Luke Murphy LB Tackles 4.6 2-7 Esean Carter DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ SYRACUSE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Steve Angeli QB Passing yards 308.4 224-406 Pass attempts 36.0 28-47 Completions 21.5 16-28 Passing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 0.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cole Weaver WR Receiving yards 70.1 34-100 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Justus Ross-Simmons WR Receiving yards 59.3 24-90 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Tylik Hill RB Rushing yards 50.1 9-76 Carries 7.2 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Meyers TE Receiving yards 39.1 15-74 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Daunte Bacheyie TE Receiving yards 33.4 9-72 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Ju'Juan Johnson RB Rushing yards 31.4 -- Carries 7.6 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 7.4 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Darien Williams WR Receiving yards 27.1 -- Receptions 2.6 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris D'Appolonia LB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Antoine Deslauriers LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Tunmise Adeleye DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jartavius Flounoy DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UConn recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Syracuse recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2025 CONN 20 SYR 27 SYR 2024 CONN 24 SYR 31 SYR ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10367