California at UNLV NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UNLV by 10.8 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 52.6 combined points, with UNLV at 31.6 and California at 21.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UNLV's margin lands between -11.6 and +32.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UNLV -10.8 / California +10.8 Moneyline: UNLV -274 / California +274 Win probability: UNLV 73.3% / California 26.7% Projected total: 52.6 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UNLV: 1537.2, California: 1411.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UNLV California ----------------- ----- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +7.1 +35.3 travel_fatigue +0.9 -2.3 coaching_change +4.7 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency -17.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +1.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: California 21.0 -- UNLV 31.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- UNLV margin -11.6 -0.8 +10.5 +22.2 +32.8 Total points 30.9 41.3 52.6 64.0 74.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UNLV Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jackson Arnold QB Passing yards 166.7 82-256 Pass attempts 26.2 18-39 Completions 16.0 10-24 Passing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Rushing yards 27.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jai'Den Thomas RB Rushing yards 81.3 40-138 Carries 11.5 6-16 Rushing TDs 1.20 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Receiving yards 28.5 9-60 Receptions 3.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylon Glover RB Rushing yards 57.3 16-97 Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 20.4 1-34 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kayden McGee WR Rushing yards 23.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 45.8 10-72 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Taz Reddicks WR Receiving yards 42.6 7-66 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taeshaun Lyons WR Receiving yards 39.9 4-64 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Keyan Burnett TE Receiving yards 20.7 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Byrnes TE Receiving yards 19.6 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cam Santee LB Tackles 5.9 3-10 Jake Pope S Tackles 5.8 4-10 Kal-El Togafau DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Kenji Scanlan DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ CALIFORNIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele QB Passing yards 246.3 162-302 Pass attempts 37.2 28-44 Completions 24.0 18-29 Passing TDs 1.42 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards -6.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Adam Mohammed RB Rushing yards 67.3 27-118 Carries 12.3 7-22 Rushing TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 21.3 2-40 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ashten Emory RB Rushing yards 61.6 21-131 Carries 10.5 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chase Hendricks WR Receiving yards 56.7 21-92 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Ian Strong WR Receiving yards 53.2 18-94 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Mason Mini TE Receiving yards 30.7 6-52 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ QuaRon Adams WR Receiving yards 29.7 -- Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Dorian Thomas TE Receiving yards 27.5 3-43 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Aaron Hampton LB Tackles 4.9 2-10 Cam Sidney DB Tackles 4.4 2-7 Jayden Wayne LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Daniel Harris DB Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UNLV recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games California recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 CAL 13 UNLV 24 UNLV ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10368