Wyoming at North Dakota State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors North Dakota State by 24.1 points, giving them a 91% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.0 combined points, with North Dakota State at 32.8 and Wyoming at 8.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, North Dakota State's margin lands between +2.3 and +46.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: North Dakota State -24.1 / Wyoming +24.1 Moneyline: North Dakota State -955 / Wyoming +955 Win probability: North Dakota State 90.5% / Wyoming 9.5% Projected total: 41.0 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- North Dakota State: 1554.4, Wyoming: 1320.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor North Dakota State Wyoming ----------------- ------------------ ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -69.1 -84.6 travel_fatigue +2.0 +2.2 coaching_change +7.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Wyoming 8.4 -- North Dakota State 32.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- North Dakota State margin +2.3 +12.5 +24.4 +36.0 +46.2 Total points 19.8 29.9 40.9 52.6 62.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WYOMING Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mason Drube QB Passing yards 94.2 10-164 Pass attempts 24.9 16-44 Completions 14.5 8-25 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Samuel Harris RB Rushing yards 45.4 5-77 Carries 10.6 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 20.6 1-40 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Diore Hubbard RB Rushing yards 44.2 3-76 Carries 11.5 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 21.0 2-55 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Coenen WR Receiving yards 20.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Eric Richardson WR Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Kyle Frendt TE Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Deion DeBlanc WR Rushing yards 12.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 11.7 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jones Thomas S Tackles 5.8 4-9 Ethan Stuhlsatz LB Tackles 5.8 3-11 Esaia Bogar DE Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ Tyson Shamsid-Deen CB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ North Dakota State recent form: 2-1 over last 3 games Wyoming recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10369