Oregon State at Colorado State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Colorado State by 12.7 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.3 combined points, with Colorado State at 27.6 and Oregon State at 15.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Colorado State's margin lands between -9.7 and +35.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Colorado State -12.7 / Oregon State +12.7 Moneyline: Colorado State -328 / Oregon State +328 Win probability: Colorado State 76.6% / Oregon State 23.4% Projected total: 42.3 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Colorado State: 1360.2, Oregon State: 1264.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Colorado State Oregon State ----------------- -------------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -18.7 -16.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.1 coaching_change -26.8 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oregon State 15.1 -- Colorado State 27.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Colorado State margin -9.7 +0.8 +12.3 +24.5 +35.1 Total points 21.3 31.3 42.7 54.2 64.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: COLORADO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Darius Curry QB Passing yards 204.3 120-346 Pass attempts 26.5 18-46 Completions 16.7 10-29 Passing TDs 1.15 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 12.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mel Brown RB Rushing yards 51.1 10-82 Carries 8.8 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 2.2 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Durell Robinson RB Rushing yards 49.0 8-81 Carries 9.9 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Juice Vereen TE Receiving yards 45.5 21-80 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 1.06 65% 1+, 29% 2+ Tommy Maher WR Receiving yards 40.5 5-59 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Mosley WR Receiving yards 34.7 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lavon Brown WR Receiving yards 33.1 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Oumar Diomande LB Tackles 9.4 6-13 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Jace Bellah S Tackles 6.7 4-12 Stephon Wright DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ OREGON STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Maalik Murphy QB Passing yards 209.6 125-362 Pass attempts 29.3 20-47 Completions 17.4 11-30 Passing TDs 1.13 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards -1.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Cornell Hatcher Jr. RB Rushing yards 48.6 8-84 Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Kourdey Glass RB Rushing yards 39.9 -- Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gabe Milbourn TE Receiving yards 31.9 8-60 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eddie Freauff WR Receiving yards 31.1 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ DeCorion Temple TE Receiving yards 27.1 3-39 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Malachi Durant WR Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Aiden Sullivan LB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Jaheim Patterson DB Tackles 5.0 3-7 Jaylen Hill DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Jacob Schuster DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Colorado State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Oregon State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 CSU 31 ORST 39 ORST ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10370