Utah State at Boise State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Boise State by 17.9 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.7 combined points, with Boise State at 33.3 and Utah State at 15.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Boise State's margin lands between -4.4 and +40.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Boise State -17.9 / Utah State +17.9 Moneyline: Boise State -535 / Utah State +535 Win probability: Boise State 84.2% / Utah State 15.8% Projected total: 48.7 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Boise State: 1595.8, Utah State: 1434.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Boise State Utah State ----------------- ----------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -13.6 -75.4 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.8 coaching_change +7.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -13.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +11.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Utah State 15.5 -- Boise State 33.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Boise State margin -4.4 +5.7 +17.7 +29.7 +40.4 Total points 27.6 37.6 48.7 59.9 70.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BOISE STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Maddux Madsen QB Passing yards 242.9 159-380 Pass attempts 25.8 17-36 Completions 15.1 9-22 Passing TDs 1.96 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 11.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Dylan Riley RB Rushing yards 55.4 15-109 Carries 13.4 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 10.5 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Sire Gaines RB Rushing yards 50.5 10-89 Carries 11.6 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 14.4 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Ben Ford WR Receiving yards 42.1 6-68 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Quinton Brown WR Rushing yards 13.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.9 5-72 Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Cam Bates WR Rushing yards 24.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 36.3 1-60 Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Matt Wagner TE Receiving yards 31.8 7-60 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Boen Phelps LB Tackles 6.2 4-8 Travis Anderson DB Tackles 4.6 2-9 Sterling Lane II LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Bol Bol LB Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ UTAH STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryson Barnes QB Passing yards 201.3 117-276 Pass attempts 28.7 20-34 Completions 16.5 10-21 Passing TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Rushing yards 48.9 9-95 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Javon Robinson WR Rushing yards 8.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 55.1 20-104 Receptions 4.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Broc Lane TE Receiving yards 48.9 24-108 Receptions 2.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Javen Jacobs RB Rushing yards 48.1 7-89 Carries 7.1 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 28.8 10-56 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Anthony Garcia WR Rushing yards 12.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 41.0 5-81 Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Eli Wood WR Receiving yards 34.7 -- Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Sesi Vailahi RB Rushing yards 30.2 -- Carries 6.8 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Sterzer TE Receiving yards 26.5 2-35 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Brevin Hamblin S Tackles 8.5 6-12 John Miller LB Tackles 8.2 6-11 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Tyree Morris DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Boise State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Utah State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 BOIS 25 USU 24 BOIS 2024 USU 30 BOIS 62 BOIS 2023 BOIS 45 USU 10 BOIS ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10371