Indiana at Rutgers NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Indiana by 30.8 points, giving them a 95% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 61.5 combined points, with Rutgers at 15.3 and Indiana at 46.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Rutgers's margin lands between -52.7 and -8.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Rutgers +30.8 / Indiana -30.8 Moneyline: Rutgers +1791 / Indiana -1791 Win probability: Rutgers 5.3% / Indiana 94.7% Projected total: 61.5 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Rutgers: 1363.8, Indiana: 1869.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Rutgers Indiana ----------------- ------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +16.4 +37.2 travel_fatigue +3.4 +2.1 coaching_change +7.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +1.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Indiana 46.0 -- Rutgers 15.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- Rutgers margin -52.7 -42.3 -30.7 -18.9 -8.4 Total points 40.1 50.1 61.1 72.5 82.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: RUTGERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dylan Lonergan QB Passing yards 151.5 67-257 Pass attempts 26.4 18-42 Completions 16.2 10-26 Passing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Rushing yards -1.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.08 8% 1+ KJ Duff WR Receiving yards 75.9 40-146 Receptions 4.8 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Antwan Raymond RB Rushing yards 46.7 6-100 Carries 14.7 9-26 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Ben Black III WR Receiving yards 35.3 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Clay Thevenin RB Rushing yards 34.2 -- Carries 9.5 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kam Anthony TE Receiving yards 20.2 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Ty Morris LB Tackles 5.9 3-8 Abram Wright LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Sekou Kromah DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Malachi Davis DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ INDIANA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Josh Hoover QB Passing yards 271.8 188-340 Pass attempts 31.4 22-44 Completions 20.4 14-28 Passing TDs 2.69 93% 1+, 75% 2+ Rushing yards 4.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Lee Beebe Jr. RB Rushing yards 67.9 27-107 Carries 11.6 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Turbo Richard RB Rushing yards 66.5 26-122 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Becker WR Receiving yards 61.4 26-103 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.64 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Shazz Preston WR Receiving yards 48.9 13-93 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Nick Marsh WR Rushing yards 10.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.8 13-82 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Rolijah Hardy LB Tackles 7.3 4-10 Isaiah Jones LB Tackles 5.5 2-9 Tyrique Tucker DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Stephen Daley DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rutgers recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Indiana recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ----- ------ 2023 RUTG 31 IU 14 RUTG ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10372