Fresno State at Washington State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 1:30 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Fresno State by 0.7 points, giving them a 52% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 25.9 combined points, with Washington State at 12.6 and Fresno State at 13.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Washington State's margin lands between -22.7 and +21.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Washington State +0.7 / Fresno State -0.7 Moneyline: Washington State +107 / Fresno State -107 Win probability: Washington State 48.4% / Fresno State 51.6% Projected total: 25.9 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Washington State: 1481.3, Fresno State: 1538.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Washington State Fresno State ----------------- ---------------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -18.4 -27.5 travel_fatigue +0.5 +1.9 coaching_change -20.1 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Fresno State 13.3 -- Washington State 12.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Washington State margin -22.7 -12.2 -0.8 +10.8 +21.4 Total points 4.4 14.7 26.1 37.2 47.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WASHINGTON STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kirby Vorhees RB Rushing yards 47.4 7-64 Carries 12.4 7-17 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tony Freeman WR Receiving yards 44.6 9-77 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Maxwell Woods RB Rushing yards 40.0 -- Carries 7.7 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 19.5 0-33 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Blood WR Receiving yards 27.3 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Branden Ganashamoorthy WR Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Trey Leckner TE Receiving yards 13.6 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Jack Pedersen TE Receiving yards 6.6 -- Receptions 1.9 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Thomas S Tackles 4.9 2-7 Khamari Terrell CB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Paul Hutson III DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ DJ Warner LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ FRESNO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Khristian Martin QB Passing yards 52.6 -- Pass attempts 5.0 -- Completions 3.8 -- Passing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Rushing yards 7.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rayshon Luke RB Rushing yards 49.1 8-88 Carries 9.7 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 22.0 3-38 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Josiah Freeman WR Rushing yards 9.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.0 12-84 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Bryson Donelson RB Rushing yards 46.0 5-75 Carries 10.0 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 12.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ezekiel Avit WR Receiving yards 29.9 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Jahlil McClain WR Receiving yards 27.7 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jake Appleget TE Receiving yards 16.2 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ K'vion Thunderbird LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Simeon Harris DB Tackles 4.9 3-8 Jahzon Jacks DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Sione Noa DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Washington State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Fresno State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 WSU 25 FRES 17 WSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10373