Texas State at San Diego State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors San Diego State by 5.1 points, giving them a 62% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.6 combined points, with San Diego State at 26.7 and Texas State at 21.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, San Diego State's margin lands between -17.0 and +27.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: San Diego State -5.1 / Texas State +5.1 Moneyline: San Diego State -161 / Texas State +161 Win probability: San Diego State 61.6% / Texas State 38.4% Projected total: 48.6 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- San Diego State: 1479.4, Texas State: 1492.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor San Diego State Texas State ----------------- --------------- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -37.0 -20.8 travel_fatigue +3.7 +0.6 coaching_change +9.5 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency +5.1 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Texas State 21.7 -- San Diego State 26.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- San Diego State margin -17.0 -6.6 +5.3 +16.5 +27.0 Total points 26.9 37.4 48.3 59.5 70.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SAN DIEGO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Denegal QB Passing yards 162.9 79-242 Pass attempts 21.5 13-27 Completions 11.7 6-15 Passing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 15.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Lucky Sutton RB Rushing yards 73.4 33-110 Carries 16.3 11-21 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 8.7 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Napier WR Rushing yards 15.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 62.3 27-131 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Christian Washington RB Rushing yards 49.8 9-83 Carries 9.0 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Receiving yards 16.6 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Donovan Brown WR Rushing yards 8.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 45.0 9-81 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jacob Bostick WR Receiving yards 41.1 6-55 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Jackson Ford TE Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jalen Thomeson S Tackles 6.8 4-9 Dalesean Staley S Tackles 6.3 4-9 Djibril Abdou Rahman DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Kai Wallin DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ TEXAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brad Jackson QB Passing yards 182.0 98-241 Pass attempts 27.7 19-34 Completions 18.9 12-24 Passing TDs 1.42 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 38.9 -- Rushing TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Beau Sparks WR Rushing yards 18.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 58.5 23-108 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Chris Dawn Jr. WR Receiving yards 53.0 17-93 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Torrance Burgess Jr. RB Rushing yards 50.7 10-111 Carries 10.3 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Jenkins RB Rushing yards 42.0 1-70 Carries 6.8 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Kylen Evans WR Receiving yards 28.2 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Blake Smith TE Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.0 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Stamey TE Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Treylin Payne LB Tackles 7.2 4-15 Javante Mackey LB Tackles 6.7 4-11 DonTerry Russell DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Tymere Jackson DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ San Diego State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Texas State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10374