New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 10, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Seattle Seahawks by 5.8 points, giving them a 65% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 38.3 combined points, with Seattle Seahawks at 22.1 and New England Patriots at 16.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Seattle Seahawks favored by 3.5 points, a 2.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Seattle Seahawks's margin lands between -11.0 and +23.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Seattle Seahawks -5.8 / New England Patriots +5.8 Moneyline: Seattle Seahawks -189 / New England Patriots +189 Win probability: Seattle Seahawks 65.3% / New England Patriots 34.6% Projected total: 38.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Seattle Seahawks: 1694.5, New England Patriots: 1602.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots ------------------------- ---------------- -------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -3.5 -3.5 home_field_vector -7.4 -- neutral_script_efficiency +5.3 +14.4 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 / New England Patriots +3.5 Consensus moneyline: Seattle Seahawks -175 / New England Patriots +145 Market no-vig win probability: Seattle Seahawks 60.9% / New England Patriots 39.1% Spread range across books: -3.5 to -3.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.141599+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Seattle Seahawks EV% New England Patriots EV% ----------- ---------------- ----- -------------------- ------ betmgm -190 -0.3% +155 -11.6% betonlineag -180 +1.7% +157 -10.9% betrivers -200 -2.0% +160 -9.9% betus -180 +1.7% +155 -11.6% bovada -185 +0.7% +160 -9.9% draftkings -175 +2.7% +145 -15.1% fanduel -196 -1.3% +164 -8.5% lowvig -180 +1.7% +157 -10.9% mybookieag -195 -1.1% +150 -13.4% Spread: Book Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots ----------- ---------------- -------------------- betmgm -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-108) betonlineag -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) betrivers -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) betus -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) bovada -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) draftkings -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) fanduel -3.5 (-112) +3.5 (-108) lowvig -3.5 (+100) +3.5 (-110) mybookieag -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 196 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New England Patriots 16.3 -- Seattle Seahawks 22.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Seattle Seahawks margin -11.0 -3.3 +5.7 +14.9 +23.2 Total points 20.6 29.0 38.4 47.6 56.0 Probability Seattle Seahawks covers the market spread: 56.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Sam Darnold QB Passing yards 200.9 128-270 Pass attempts 30.9 23-38 Completions 19.9 14-24 Passing TDs 1.29 73% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 10.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Rushing yards 6.2 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 60.3 26-100 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Zach Charbonnet RB Rushing yards 46.0 10-74 Carries 11.5 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cooper Kupp WR Receiving yards 35.8 2-52 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ A.J. Barner TE Receiving yards 33.5 8-49 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Rashid Shaheed WR Rushing yards 7.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 32.9 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eric Saubert TE Receiving yards 11.7 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ernest Jones LB Tackles 4.6 3-8 Nick Emmanwori DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Leonard Williams DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Byron Murphy DL Tackles 1.8 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Demarcus Lawrence LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Derick Hall LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drake Maye QB Passing yards 223.1 150-320 Pass attempts 29.6 22-40 Completions 19.2 14-27 Passing TDs 1.57 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 36.7 18-58 Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ A.J. Brown WR Receiving yards 64.9 31-103 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Romeo Doubs WR Receiving yards 48.5 14-88 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Rhamondre Stevenson RB Rushing yards 42.7 7-68 Carries 11.8 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Receiving yards 22.3 3-38 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Hunter Henry TE Receiving yards 39.1 14-64 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 26% 1+ TreVeyon Henderson RB Rushing yards 37.6 2-76 Carries 11.4 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.07 6% 1+ Demario Douglas WR Rushing yards 3.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 28.5 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Christian Gonzalez DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Marcus Jones DB Tackles 4.0 2-7 Christian Barmore DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Cory Durden DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Dre'Mont Jones LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Milton Williams DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Seattle Seahawks 7 days, New England Patriots 7 days Seattle Seahawks recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games New England Patriots recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ----- ------ 2025 SEA 29 NE 13 SEA 2024 SEA 23 NE 20 SEA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7353