San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 11, 2026 at 12:35 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Los Angeles Rams by 5.7 points, giving them a 65% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 62.2 combined points, with Los Angeles Rams at 33.8 and San Francisco 49ers at 28.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Los Angeles Rams favored by 3.5 points, a 2.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Los Angeles Rams's margin lands between -11.8 and +23.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Los Angeles Rams -5.7 / San Francisco 49ers +5.7 Moneyline: Los Angeles Rams -185 / San Francisco 49ers +185 Win probability: Los Angeles Rams 65.0% / San Francisco 49ers 35.0% Projected total: 62.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Los Angeles Rams: 1619.8, San Francisco 49ers: 1557.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers ------------------------- ---------------- ------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.1 +1.1 home_field_vector -0.9 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 +8.7 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 / San Francisco 49ers +3.5 Consensus moneyline: Los Angeles Rams -185 / San Francisco 49ers +154 Market no-vig win probability: Los Angeles Rams 62.2% / San Francisco 49ers 37.8% Spread range across books: -4.0 to -3.5 (8 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.152184+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Los Angeles Rams EV% San Francisco 49ers EV% ----------- ---------------- ----- ------------------- ------ betmgm -190 -0.8% +155 -10.7% betonlineag -195 -1.7% +170 -5.4% betrivers -200 -2.5% +160 -8.9% betus -195 -1.7% +167 -6.5% bovada -200 -2.5% +170 -5.4% draftkings -185 +0.1% +154 -11.0% fanduel -200 -2.5% +168 -6.1% lowvig -195 -1.7% +170 -5.4% mybookieag -202 -2.9% +155 -10.7% Spread: Book Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers ----------- ---------------- ------------------- betmgm -3.5 (-108) +3.5 (-110) betonlineag -4.0 (-105) +4.0 (-115) betrivers -3.5 (-109) +3.5 (-112) betus -4.0 (-105) +4.0 (-115) bovada -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) draftkings -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) fanduel -3.5 (-115) +3.5 (-105) lowvig -4.0 (+100) +4.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Los Angeles Rams -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 195 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: San Francisco 49ers 28.3 -- Los Angeles Rams 33.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Los Angeles Rams margin -11.8 -3.6 +5.7 +14.8 +23.1 Total points 44.7 52.8 62.2 71.3 79.5 Probability Los Angeles Rams covers the market spread: 56.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOS ANGELES RAMS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Matthew Stafford QB Passing yards 300.8 228-380 Pass attempts 37.5 30-43 Completions 22.9 18-26 Passing TDs 2.66 93% 1+, 74% 2+ Rushing yards 7.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Puka Nacua WR Rushing yards 10.7 3-18 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 92.8 59-164 Receptions 6.7 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.88 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Kyren Williams RB Rushing yards 64.8 29-84 Carries 13.7 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.72 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 22.6 3-32 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Blake Corum RB Rushing yards 55.0 20-92 Carries 11.1 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 14.3 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Davante Adams WR Receiving yards 52.1 18-84 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Colby Parkinson TE Receiving yards 39.4 14-57 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.97 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Tyler Higbee TE Receiving yards 32.0 6-57 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Jordan Whittington WR Rushing yards 4.1 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kamren Curl DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Trent McDuffie DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Poona Ford DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Kobie Turner DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Myles Garrett DL Sacks 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Braden Fiske DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brock Purdy QB Passing yards 219.7 146-297 Pass attempts 30.6 22-33 Completions 20.4 15-24 Passing TDs 1.85 84% 1+, 55% 2+ Rushing yards 25.6 7-39 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Mike Evans WR Receiving yards 58.4 24-102 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Christian McCaffrey RB Rushing yards 58.2 23-99 Carries 14.8 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 29.1 10-46 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Deebo Samuel WR Rushing yards 5.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 52.2 18-77 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ George Kittle TE Receiving yards 46.2 21-78 Receptions 4.7 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Jake Tonges TE Receiving yards 33.3 8-57 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Fred Warner LB Tackles 5.3 4-7 Tatum Bethune LB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Malik Mustapha DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Ji'Ayir Brown DB Tackles 3.4 2-5 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Cam Sample DL Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Keion White DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Los Angeles Rams 7 days, San Francisco 49ers 7 days Los Angeles Rams recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games San Francisco 49ers recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ----- ------ 2025 LA 42 SF 26 LA 2025 SF 26 LA 23 SF 2024 LA 12 SF 6 LA 2024 SF 24 LA 27 LA 2023 LA 21 SF 20 LA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7354