Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Chicago Bears by 5.9 points, giving them a 65% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.2 combined points, with Carolina Panthers at 19.7 and Chicago Bears at 25.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Chicago Bears favored by 2.5 points, a 3.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Carolina Panthers's margin lands between -22.8 and +11.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Carolina Panthers +5.9 / Chicago Bears -5.9 Moneyline: Carolina Panthers +189 / Chicago Bears -189 Win probability: Carolina Panthers 34.6% / Chicago Bears 65.4% Projected total: 45.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Carolina Panthers: 1416.1, Chicago Bears: 1533.0 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears ------------------------- ----------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.2 home_field_vector +8.6 -- neutral_script_efficiency -19.0 +20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Carolina Panthers +2.5 / Chicago Bears -2.5 Consensus moneyline: Carolina Panthers +120 / Chicago Bears -142 Market no-vig win probability: Carolina Panthers 43.7% / Chicago Bears 56.3% Spread range across books: +2.5 to +3.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.177692+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Carolina Panthers EV% Chicago Bears EV% ----------- ----------------- ------ ------------- ------ betmgm +125 -22.1% -145 +10.5% betonlineag +130 -20.4% -150 +9.0% betrivers +128 -21.1% -157 +7.0% betus +134 -19.0% -155 +7.6% bovada +135 -18.7% -160 +6.3% draftkings +120 -23.9% -142 +11.4% fanduel +132 -19.7% -156 +7.3% lowvig +130 -20.4% -150 +9.0% mybookieag +124 -22.5% -159 +6.5% Spread: Book Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears ----------- ----------------- ------------- betmgm +2.5 (-102) -2.5 (-115) betonlineag +2.5 (+100) -2.5 (-120) betrivers +2.5 (-105) -2.5 (-117) betus +3.0 (-115) -3.0 (-105) bovada +2.5 (-105) -2.5 (-115) draftkings +2.5 (-102) -2.5 (-118) fanduel +2.5 (+102) -2.5 (-124) lowvig +2.5 (+105) -2.5 (-116) mybookieag +3.0 (-110) -3.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Carolina Panthers +2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 195 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Chicago Bears 25.5 -- Carolina Panthers 19.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Carolina Panthers margin -22.8 -14.9 -5.8 +3.1 +11.2 Total points 27.6 35.8 45.3 54.5 63.1 Probability Carolina Panthers covers the market spread: 40.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CAROLINA PANTHERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryce Young QB Passing yards 241.0 168-372 Pass attempts 31.3 23-40 Completions 20.0 14-26 Passing TDs 1.95 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 26.0 7-45 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Tetairoa McMillan WR Receiving yards 64.5 30-113 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Jalen Coker WR Receiving yards 63.4 29-106 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Chuba Hubbard RB Rushing yards 48.1 12-78 Carries 10.1 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 22.5 3-38 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Xavier Legette WR Receiving yards 36.0 2-69 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Darren Waller TE Receiving yards 34.8 9-62 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Tommy Tremble TE Receiving yards 24.0 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Nick Scott DB Tackles 4.6 3-7 Tre'von Moehrig DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Derrick Brown DL Tackles 3.0 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Bobby Brown DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ Jaelan Phillips LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Trevis Gipson DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ CHICAGO BEARS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caleb Williams QB Passing yards 229.2 156-299 Pass attempts 35.7 28-42 Completions 20.5 15-24 Passing TDs 1.71 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Rushing yards 21.4 3-33 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ D'Andre Swift RB Rushing yards 69.6 34-102 Carries 13.4 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 22.0 3-36 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Luther Burden WR Rushing yards 4.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 61.0 27-105 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Kyle Monangai RB Rushing yards 57.2 22-99 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 24.9 6-41 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rome Odunze WR Receiving yards 56.8 23-95 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Colston Loveland TE Receiving yards 55.5 30-100 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Kalif Raymond WR Receiving yards 39.7 6-64 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Cole Kmet TE Receiving yards 29.7 4-45 Receptions 2.5 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ T.J. Edwards LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Devin Bush LB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Grady Jarrett DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Gervon Dexter DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Montez Sweat DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Austin Booker DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Carolina Panthers 7 days, Chicago Bears 7 days Carolina Panthers recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Chicago Bears recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 CAR 10 CHI 36 CHI 2023 CAR 13 CHI 16 CHI ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7355