Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Cincinnati Bengals by 2.4 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.5 combined points, with Cincinnati Bengals at 25.5 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 23.1. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Cincinnati Bengals favored by 3.5 points, a 1.1-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Cincinnati Bengals's margin lands between -14.9 and +19.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -2.4 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.4 Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals -129 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers +129 Win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 56.4% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43.6% Projected total: 48.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Cincinnati Bengals: 1475.7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1474.3 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers ------------------------- ------------------ -------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.7 home_field_vector +0.2 -- neutral_script_efficiency +2.1 -3.8 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 Consensus moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals -198 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers +164 Market no-vig win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 63.7% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36.3% Spread range across books: -4.0 to -3.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.203810+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Cincinnati Bengals EV% Tampa Bay Buccaneers EV% ----------- ------------------ ------ -------------------- ------ betmgm -210 -16.7% +170 +17.7% betonlineag -210 -16.7% +180 +22.0% betrivers -200 -15.4% +160 +13.3% betus -210 -16.7% +180 +22.0% bovada -220 -17.9% +180 +22.0% draftkings -198 -15.1% +164 +15.1% fanduel -198 -15.1% +166 +15.9% lowvig -210 -16.7% +180 +22.0% mybookieag -214 -17.2% +164 +15.1% Spread: Book Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers ----------- ------------------ -------------------- betmgm -4.0 (-108) +4.0 (-110) betonlineag -4.0 (-110) +4.0 (-110) betrivers -3.5 (-112) +3.5 (-109) betus -4.0 (-110) +4.0 (-110) bovada -4.0 (-115) +4.0 (-105) draftkings -3.5 (-115) +3.5 (-105) fanduel -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) lowvig -4.0 (-105) +4.0 (-105) mybookieag -4.0 (-110) +4.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.1 -- Cincinnati Bengals 25.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Cincinnati Bengals margin -14.9 -6.7 +2.1 +11.4 +19.7 Total points 31.2 39.4 48.5 58.0 66.0 Probability Cincinnati Bengals covers the market spread: 46.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CINCINNATI BENGALS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Joe Burrow QB Passing yards 243.2 170-343 Pass attempts 32.1 24-43 Completions 21.1 16-29 Passing TDs 2.29 90% 1+, 67% 2+ Rushing yards 12.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Marr Chase WR Rushing yards 4.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 70.1 36-107 Receptions 5.9 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Tee Higgins WR Receiving yards 58.5 24-87 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Chase Brown RB Rushing yards 57.7 22-84 Carries 14.1 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 24.7 6-35 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Samaje Perine RB Rushing yards 40.0 4-67 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mike Gesicki TE Receiving yards 39.2 14-69 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Andrei Iosivas WR Rushing yards 4.4 4-5 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 35.3 1-56 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Drew Sample TE Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Battle DB Tackles 4.4 3-6 Bryan Cook DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Dexter Lawrence DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Boye Mafe LB Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Myles Murphy DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jonathan Allen DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Baker Mayfield QB Passing yards 211.1 138-315 Pass attempts 29.8 22-38 Completions 18.8 13-26 Passing TDs 1.34 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Rushing yards 31.2 13-49 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Bucky Irving RB Rushing yards 63.7 28-86 Carries 14.8 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 30.8 12-66 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Kenneth Gainwell RB Rushing yards 51.9 16-89 Carries 9.5 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 33.7 14-60 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Cade Otton TE Receiving yards 51.2 26-97 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Jalen McMillan WR Receiving yards 43.9 10-93 Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Godwin WR Receiving yards 40.9 7-76 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Emeka Egbuka WR Receiving yards 33.2 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christian Rozeboom LB Tackles 4.1 2-6 SirVocea Dennis LB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Vita Vea DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ A'Shawn Robinson DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Al-Quadin Muhammad DL Sacks 1.50 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rakeem Nunez-Roches DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Cincinnati Bengals 7 days, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 days Cincinnati Bengals recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Tampa Bay Buccaneers recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7356