New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Detroit Lions by 9.3 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.2 combined points, with Detroit Lions at 26.2 and New Orleans Saints at 16.7. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Detroit Lions favored by 7.0 points, a 2.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Detroit Lions's margin lands between -7.4 and +26.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Thomas Harper (Out), Jordyn Tyson (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Detroit Lions -9.3 / New Orleans Saints +9.3 Moneyline: Detroit Lions -276 / New Orleans Saints +276 Win probability: Detroit Lions 73.4% / New Orleans Saints 26.6% Projected total: 43.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Detroit Lions: 1564.0, New Orleans Saints: 1426.3 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints ------------------------- ------------- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.3 +2.2 home_field_vector +7.1 -- neutral_script_efficiency -15.1 -10.4 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Detroit Lions -7.0 / New Orleans Saints +7.0 Consensus moneyline: Detroit Lions -305 / New Orleans Saints +245 Market no-vig win probability: Detroit Lions 72.2% / New Orleans Saints 27.8% Spread range across books: -7.0 to -7.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.215185+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Detroit Lions EV% New Orleans Saints EV% ----------- ------------- ----- ------------------ ----- betmgm -325 -4.0% +270 -1.5% betonlineag -335 -4.7% +270 -1.5% betrivers -360 -6.2% +270 -1.5% betus -335 -4.7% +272 -1.0% bovada -320 -3.7% +260 -4.2% draftkings -305 -2.5% +245 -8.2% fanduel -360 -6.2% +290 +3.8% lowvig -335 -4.7% +270 -1.5% mybookieag -330 -4.4% +244 -8.5% Spread: Book Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints ----------- ------------- ------------------ betmgm -7.0 (-105) +7.0 (-112) betonlineag -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) betrivers -7.0 (-109) +7.0 (-112) betus -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) bovada -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) draftkings -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) fanduel -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) lowvig -7.0 (-105) +7.0 (-105) mybookieag -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Detroit Lions -7.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New Orleans Saints 16.7 -- Detroit Lions 26.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- Detroit Lions margin -7.4 +0.3 +9.5 +18.5 +26.6 Total points 25.4 33.5 42.9 52.1 60.6 Probability Detroit Lions covers the market spread: 57.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DETROIT LIONS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jared Goff QB Passing yards 239.3 166-290 Pass attempts 35.8 28-45 Completions 22.6 17-29 Passing TDs 1.74 82% 1+, 52% 2+ Rushing yards 8.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jameson Williams WR Rushing yards 1.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 70.3 36-104 Receptions 5.1 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Receiving yards 67.8 34-113 Receptions 5.7 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Jahmyr Gibbs RB Rushing yards 55.6 20-123 Carries 13.4 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 31.4 12-64 Receptions 4.0 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Isiah Pacheco RB Rushing yards 41.8 6-58 Carries 11.0 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Sam LaPorta TE Receiving yards 36.7 11-62 Receptions 4.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Isaac TeSlaa WR Receiving yards 28.6 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Brock Wright TE Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jack Campbell LB Tackles 5.3 4-8 Devin White LB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Alim McNeill DL Tackles 1.1 1-1 Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Aidan Hutchinson DL Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ D.J. Wonnum LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tyler Shough QB Passing yards 261.8 189-325 Pass attempts 33.1 25-43 Completions 22.5 17-29 Passing TDs 1.26 72% 1+, 36% 2+ Rushing yards 26.9 8-48 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Chris Olave WR Receiving yards 79.2 45-126 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Juwan Johnson TE Receiving yards 54.2 29-84 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Travis Etienne RB Rushing yards 53.6 18-77 Carries 13.6 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 24.9 6-49 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 19% 2+ Devaughn Vele WR Receiving yards 44.7 11-82 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Alvin Kamara RB Rushing yards 43.5 8-71 Carries 11.5 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 20.9 2-38 Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Fant TE Receiving yards 26.3 1-45 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Kaden Elliss LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Kool-Aid McKinstry DB Tackles 3.5 2-5 Davon Godchaux DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Cameron Jordan LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Chase Young LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Detroit Lions 7 days, New Orleans Saints 7 days Detroit Lions recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games New Orleans Saints recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ----- ------ 2023 DET 33 NO 28 DET Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------------ Thomas Harper DB DET Out Jordyn Tyson WR NO Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7357