Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Houston Texans by 1.2 points, giving them a 53% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.6 combined points, with Houston Texans at 23.7 and Buffalo Bills at 22.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Buffalo Bills favored by 1.5 points, a 2.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Houston Texans's margin lands between -16.1 and +18.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Houston Texans -1.2 / Buffalo Bills +1.2 Moneyline: Houston Texans -114 / Buffalo Bills +114 Win probability: Houston Texans 53.3% / Buffalo Bills 46.7% Projected total: 46.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Houston Texans: 1615.9, Buffalo Bills: 1615.2 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Houston Texans Buffalo Bills ------------------------- -------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -0.8 +1.4 home_field_vector +1.5 -- neutral_script_efficiency +6.8 +18.6 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Houston Texans +1.5 / Buffalo Bills -1.5 Consensus moneyline: Houston Texans -102 / Buffalo Bills -118 Market no-vig win probability: Houston Texans 48.3% / Buffalo Bills 51.7% Spread range across books: -1.0 to +1.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.171743+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Houston Texans EV% Buffalo Bills EV% ----------- -------------- ----- ------------- ------ betmgm -108 +2.7% -110 -10.9% betonlineag -105 +4.1% -115 -12.8% betrivers -106 +3.7% -118 -13.8% betus -105 +4.1% -115 -12.8% bovada -110 +1.8% -110 -10.9% draftkings -102 +5.6% -118 -13.8% fanduel -102 +5.6% -116 -13.1% lowvig -105 +4.1% -115 -12.8% mybookieag -111 +1.4% -115 -12.8% Spread: Book Houston Texans Buffalo Bills ----------- -------------- ------------- betmgm +1.0 (-118) -1.0 (-102) betonlineag +0.0 (-110) +0.0 (-110) betrivers +1.0 (-112) -1.0 (-109) betus +0.0 (-110) +0.0 (-110) bovada -1.0 (-110) +1.0 (-110) draftkings +1.5 (-115) -1.5 (-105) fanduel +1.5 (-118) -1.5 (-104) lowvig +0.0 (-105) +0.0 (-105) mybookieag -1.0 (-110) +1.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Houston Texans +1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Buffalo Bills 22.6 -- Houston Texans 23.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Houston Texans margin -16.1 -7.8 +1.1 +10.1 +18.3 Total points 29.0 37.1 46.3 55.5 63.9 Probability Houston Texans covers the market spread: 58.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: HOUSTON TEXANS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- C.J. Stroud QB Passing yards 184.9 112-218 Pass attempts 32.2 24-40 Completions 19.4 14-23 Passing TDs 1.17 69% 1+, 33% 2+ Rushing yards 5.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Nico Collins WR Receiving yards 64.2 30-96 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Woody Marks RB Rushing yards 59.4 24-92 Carries 14.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ David Montgomery RB Rushing yards 40.4 5-56 Carries 8.5 3-10 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylin Noel WR Rushing yards 1.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.4 3-66 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Dalton Schultz TE Receiving yards 37.3 12-61 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Xavier Hutchinson WR Rushing yards 7.1 5-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.1 3-62 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Foster Moreau TE Receiving yards 12.5 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reed Blankenship DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Kamari Lassiter DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Tommy Togiai DL Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Sheldon Rankins DL Tackles 1.8 1-2 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Danielle Hunter DL Sacks 1.12 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Will Anderson DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ BUFFALO BILLS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Josh Allen QB Passing yards 198.8 126-260 Pass attempts 30.6 22-38 Completions 20.8 15-26 Passing TDs 1.21 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards 34.4 16-55 Rushing TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ James Cook RB Rushing yards 64.5 29-107 Carries 14.5 9-24 Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Khalil Shakir WR Receiving yards 47.1 13-82 Receptions 4.9 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ D.J. Moore WR Rushing yards 6.5 0-12 Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Receiving yards 39.1 5-74 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Ray Davis RB Rushing yards 35.6 0-89 Carries 7.5 2-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.4 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Dalton Kincaid TE Receiving yards 35.3 10-59 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Dawson Knox TE Receiving yards 29.1 4-50 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Keon Coleman WR Receiving yards 28.2 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Dee Alford DB Tackles 4.4 3-7 Geno Stone DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Deone Walker DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ T.J. Sanders DL Tackles 1.1 1-1 Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Ed Oliver DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Gregory Rousseau DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Houston Texans 7 days, Buffalo Bills 7 days Houston Texans recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Buffalo Bills recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 BUF 19 HOU 23 HOU 2024 BUF 20 HOU 23 HOU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7358