Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Baltimore Ravens by 2.9 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.1 combined points, with Indianapolis Colts at 23.6 and Baltimore Ravens at 26.4. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Baltimore Ravens by 3.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Indianapolis Colts's margin lands between -19.9 and +14.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Indianapolis Colts +2.9 / Baltimore Ravens -2.9 Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts +137 / Baltimore Ravens -137 Win probability: Indianapolis Colts 42.2% / Baltimore Ravens 57.8% Projected total: 50.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Indianapolis Colts: 1459.4, Baltimore Ravens: 1549.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens ------------------------- ------------------ ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.4 +3.0 home_field_vector +8.1 -- neutral_script_efficiency -0.2 +5.3 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Indianapolis Colts +3.5 / Baltimore Ravens -3.5 Consensus moneyline: Indianapolis Colts +150 / Baltimore Ravens -180 Market no-vig win probability: Indianapolis Colts 38.4% / Baltimore Ravens 61.6% Spread range across books: +3.5 to +3.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.168100+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Indianapolis Colts EV% Baltimore Ravens EV% ----------- ------------------ ------ ---------------- ------ betmgm +155 +7.7% -190 -11.8% betonlineag +157 +8.5% -180 -10.1% betrivers +155 +7.7% -200 -13.3% betus +155 +7.7% -180 -10.1% bovada +155 +7.7% -180 -10.1% draftkings +150 +5.6% -180 -10.1% fanduel +164 +11.5% -196 -12.8% lowvig +157 +8.5% -180 -10.1% mybookieag +149 +5.2% -193 -12.3% Spread: Book Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens ----------- ------------------ ---------------- betmgm +3.5 (-115) -3.5 (-105) betonlineag +3.5 (-117) -3.5 (-103) betrivers +3.5 (-110) -3.5 (-110) betus +3.5 (-115) -3.5 (-105) bovada +3.5 (-120) -3.5 (+100) draftkings +3.5 (-112) -3.5 (-108) fanduel +3.5 (-108) -3.5 (-112) lowvig +3.5 (-113) -3.5 (+102) mybookieag +3.5 (-110) -3.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Baltimore Ravens 26.4 -- Indianapolis Colts 23.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Indianapolis Colts margin -19.9 -11.9 -2.7 +6.0 +14.1 Total points 32.4 40.6 49.9 59.3 67.4 Probability Indianapolis Colts covers the market spread: 52.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Daniel Jones QB Passing yards 254.9 182-357 Pass attempts 30.3 22-43 Completions 19.7 14-28 Passing TDs 1.50 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 22.6 4-44 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Alec Pierce WR Receiving yards 75.2 41-122 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Jonathan Taylor RB Rushing yards 54.1 19-114 Carries 16.0 10-22 Rushing TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 19.6 0-32 Receptions 2.8 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Downs WR Receiving yards 40.7 7-68 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Keenan Allen WR Receiving yards 39.6 6-54 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Warren TE Receiving yards 31.8 6-56 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ D.J. Giddens RB Rushing yards 25.1 -- Carries 8.3 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mo Alie-Cox TE Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Camryn Bynum DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Ahmad Gardner DB Tackles 3.4 2-5 Grover Stewart DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ Arden Key DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Laiatu Latu DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ DeForest Buckner DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ BALTIMORE RAVENS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lamar Jackson QB Passing yards 225.4 152-286 Pass attempts 26.1 18-36 Completions 15.2 10-20 Passing TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Rushing yards 28.5 10-46 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Zay Flowers WR Rushing yards 8.7 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 72.5 38-125 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Derrick Henry RB Rushing yards 66.6 31-113 Carries 15.0 10-24 Rushing TDs 1.28 72% 1+, 37% 2+ Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rashod Bateman WR Receiving yards 34.9 1-60 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Mark Andrews TE Receiving yards 30.4 5-46 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justice Hill RB Rushing yards 28.8 -- Carries 5.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 20.4 1-35 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Durham Smythe TE Receiving yards 8.3 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Roquan Smith LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Kyle Hamilton DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Travis Jones DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Tavius Robinson LB Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Trey Hendrickson DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Indianapolis Colts 7 days, Baltimore Ravens 7 days Indianapolis Colts recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Baltimore Ravens recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 IND 22 BAL 19 IND ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7359