Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Jacksonville Jaguars by 13.5 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.9 combined points, with Jacksonville Jaguars at 27.8 and Cleveland Browns at 14.2. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Jacksonville Jaguars favored by 7.5 points, a 6.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Jacksonville Jaguars's margin lands between -3.8 and +30.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -13.5 / Cleveland Browns +13.5 Moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars -432 / Cleveland Browns +432 Win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 81.2% / Cleveland Browns 18.8% Projected total: 41.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Jacksonville Jaguars: 1573.7, Cleveland Browns: 1406.6 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns ------------------------- -------------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.1 home_field_vector +10.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 / Cleveland Browns +7.5 Consensus moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars -380 / Cleveland Browns +300 Market no-vig win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 76.0% / Cleveland Browns 24.0% Spread range across books: -9.0 to -7.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.207808+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Jacksonville Jaguars EV% Cleveland Browns EV% ----------- -------------------- ----- ---------------- ------ betmgm -400 +1.5% +310 -23.0% betonlineag -390 +2.0% +310 -23.0% betrivers -400 +1.5% +300 -24.8% betus -390 +2.0% +312 -22.6% bovada -400 +1.5% +300 -24.8% draftkings -380 +2.6% +300 -24.8% fanduel -420 +0.5% +330 -19.2% lowvig -390 +2.0% +310 -23.0% mybookieag -410 +1.0% +290 -26.7% Spread: Book Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns ----------- -------------------- ---------------- betmgm -7.5 (-108) +7.5 (-110) betonlineag -8.0 (-112) +8.0 (-108) betrivers -7.5 (-110) +7.5 (-110) betus -9.0 (+105) +9.0 (-125) bovada -8.5 (-110) +8.5 (-110) draftkings -7.5 (-110) +7.5 (-110) fanduel -7.5 (-115) +7.5 (-105) lowvig -8.0 (-107) +8.0 (-103) mybookieag -8.0 (-110) +8.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Cleveland Browns 14.2 -- Jacksonville Jaguars 27.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Jacksonville Jaguars margin -3.8 +4.5 +13.6 +22.8 +30.9 Total points 24.6 32.9 41.9 51.2 59.5 Probability Jacksonville Jaguars covers the market spread: 67.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Trevor Lawrence QB Passing yards 217.1 144-251 Pass attempts 31.5 24-35 Completions 19.8 14-23 Passing TDs 2.58 92% 1+, 73% 2+ Rushing yards 24.3 6-35 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Parker Washington WR Rushing yards 0.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 58.7 25-100 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Chris Rodriguez RB Rushing yards 48.9 13-76 Carries 11.7 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 17.5 -- Receptions 1.6 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jakobi Meyers WR Rushing yards 3.8 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 43.0 9-64 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Brian Thomas WR Rushing yards 6.1 4-8 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 40.8 7-63 Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Bhayshul Tuten RB Rushing yards 37.0 2-62 Carries 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Brenton Strange TE Receiving yards 35.6 10-59 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Foyesade Oluokun LB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Montaric Brown DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Travon Walker DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Arik Armstead DL Tackles 1.8 1-2 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Josh Hines-Allen DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ B.J. Green DL Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ CLEVELAND BROWNS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Harold Fannin TE Receiving yards 42.0 16-71 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Quinshon Judkins RB Rushing yards 38.7 3-62 Carries 13.6 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jerry Jeudy WR Receiving yards 37.7 4-61 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Dylan Sampson RB Rushing yards 21.9 -- Carries 8.5 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Carson Schwesinger LB Tackles 5.1 4-7 Quincy Williams LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Mason Graham DL Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah McGuire DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Maliek Collins DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Michael Hall DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Jacksonville Jaguars 7 days, Cleveland Browns 7 days Jacksonville Jaguars recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Cleveland Browns recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 CLE 18 JAX 13 CLE 2023 JAX 27 CLE 31 CLE ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7360