Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Pittsburgh Steelers by 3.8 points, giving them a 60% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.8 combined points, with Pittsburgh Steelers at 23.9 and Atlanta Falcons at 20.1. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Pittsburgh Steelers by 3.0 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Pittsburgh Steelers's margin lands between -13.5 and +20.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.8 / Atlanta Falcons +3.8 Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers -151 / Atlanta Falcons +151 Win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 60.1% / Atlanta Falcons 39.9% Projected total: 43.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Pittsburgh Steelers: 1510.9, Atlanta Falcons: 1465.2 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons ------------------------- ------------------- --------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.4 home_field_vector +3.6 -- neutral_script_efficiency -9.5 +5.1 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 / Atlanta Falcons +3.0 Consensus moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers -175 / Atlanta Falcons +145 Market no-vig win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 60.9% / Atlanta Falcons 39.1% Spread range across books: -3.0 to -3.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.163732+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Pittsburgh Steelers EV% Atlanta Falcons EV% ----------- ------------------- ----- --------------- ----- betmgm -165 -3.5% +140 -4.3% betonlineag -160 -2.3% +140 -4.3% betrivers -167 -3.9% +135 -6.3% betus -160 -2.3% +138 -5.1% bovada -175 -5.5% +150 -0.3% draftkings -175 -5.5% +145 -2.3% fanduel -168 -4.1% +142 -3.5% lowvig -160 -2.3% +140 -4.3% mybookieag -172 -4.9% +134 -6.7% Spread: Book Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons ----------- ------------------- --------------- betmgm -3.0 (-110) +3.0 (-108) betonlineag -3.0 (-115) +3.0 (-105) betrivers -3.0 (-110) +3.0 (-110) betus -3.0 (-115) +3.0 (-105) bovada -3.0 (-120) +3.0 (+100) draftkings -3.0 (-120) +3.0 (+100) fanduel -3.0 (-115) +3.0 (-105) lowvig -3.0 (-110) +3.0 (+100) mybookieag -3.0 (-110) +3.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Atlanta Falcons 20.1 -- Pittsburgh Steelers 23.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Pittsburgh Steelers margin -13.5 -5.2 +3.8 +12.9 +20.7 Total points 26.3 34.8 43.9 53.2 61.5 Probability Pittsburgh Steelers covers the market spread: 52.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PITTSBURGH STEELERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Aaron Rodgers QB Passing yards 208.3 135-287 Pass attempts 31.9 24-43 Completions 20.2 14-28 Passing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 10.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jaylen Warren RB Rushing yards 58.5 23-102 Carries 12.5 7-16 Rushing TDs 0.39 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 22.6 3-40 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ DK Metcalf WR Receiving yards 49.1 15-89 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Rico Dowdle RB Rushing yards 46.2 11-68 Carries 12.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 23.8 5-44 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Pat Freiermuth TE Receiving yards 33.0 7-54 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Darnell Washington TE Receiving yards 32.4 7-52 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Pittman WR Receiving yards 31.4 -- Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Roman Wilson WR Receiving yards 29.7 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ DeShon Elliott DB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Jaquan Brisker DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Cameron Heyward DL Tackles 3.1 2-5 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Yahya Black DL Tackles 2.9 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Highsmith LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Derrick Harmon DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ATLANTA FALCONS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tua Tagovailoa QB Passing yards 225.3 152-296 Pass attempts 27.1 19-34 Completions 17.8 12-23 Passing TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bijan Robinson RB Rushing yards 78.8 43-137 Carries 16.0 10-20 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 34.9 16-71 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Drake London WR Receiving yards 74.3 40-136 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Kyle Pitts TE Receiving yards 46.7 21-98 Receptions 4.5 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Jahan Dotson WR Receiving yards 31.6 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Olamide Zaccheaus WR Rushing yards 6.8 1-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 27.5 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Brian Robinson RB Rushing yards 25.7 -- Carries 6.5 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 5.4 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Woerner TE Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mike Hughes DB Tackles 4.5 3-6 Divine Deablo LB Tackles 4.0 2-7 Christian Harris LB Tackles 1.5 -- Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ James Pearce LB Sacks 1.12 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Zach Harrison DL Sacks 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Pittsburgh Steelers 7 days, Atlanta Falcons 7 days Pittsburgh Steelers recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Atlanta Falcons recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 PIT 18 ATL 10 PIT ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7361