New York Jets at Tennessee Titans NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Tennessee Titans by 2.8 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.2 combined points, with Tennessee Titans at 23.0 and New York Jets at 20.2. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Tennessee Titans by 3.0 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tennessee Titans's margin lands between -14.3 and +20.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: T'Vondre Sweat (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tennessee Titans -2.8 / New York Jets +2.8 Moneyline: Tennessee Titans -135 / New York Jets +135 Win probability: Tennessee Titans 57.5% / New York Jets 42.5% Projected total: 43.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tennessee Titans: 1335.6, New York Jets: 1340.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tennessee Titans New York Jets ------------------------- ---------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.5 +2.1 home_field_vector +5.0 -- neutral_script_efficiency -3.0 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Tennessee Titans -3.0 / New York Jets +3.0 Consensus moneyline: Tennessee Titans -148 / New York Jets +124 Market no-vig win probability: Tennessee Titans 57.2% / New York Jets 42.8% Spread range across books: -3.0 to -2.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.223410+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Tennessee Titans EV% New York Jets EV% ----------- ---------------- ----- ------------- ----- betmgm -145 -2.9% +120 -6.5% betonlineag -149 -3.9% +129 -2.6% betrivers -150 -4.2% +120 -6.5% betus -150 -4.2% +129 -2.6% bovada -145 -2.9% +125 -4.3% draftkings -148 -3.7% +124 -4.8% fanduel -138 -0.9% +118 -7.3% lowvig -149 -3.9% +129 -2.6% mybookieag -150 -4.2% +117 -7.7% Spread: Book Tennessee Titans New York Jets ----------- ---------------- ------------- betmgm -2.5 (-115) +2.5 (-105) betonlineag -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) betrivers -2.5 (-113) +2.5 (-108) betus -2.0 (-120) +2.0 (+100) bovada -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) draftkings -3.0 (+100) +3.0 (-120) fanduel -2.5 (-105) +2.5 (-115) lowvig -2.5 (-105) +2.5 (-105) mybookieag -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Tennessee Titans -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New York Jets 20.2 -- Tennessee Titans 23.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Tennessee Titans margin -14.3 -6.3 +2.7 +11.6 +20.0 Total points 26.0 33.8 43.1 52.4 60.6 Probability Tennessee Titans covers the market spread: 49.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TENNESSEE TITANS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cameron Ward QB Passing yards 186.6 113-260 Pass attempts 31.1 23-44 Completions 19.6 14-28 Passing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 18.9 0-33 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Tony Pollard RB Rushing yards 71.0 36-129 Carries 13.8 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Wan'Dale Robinson WR Rushing yards 1.7 0-3 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 60.9 27-112 Receptions 5.7 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Calvin Ridley WR Receiving yards 47.6 14-93 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyjae Spears RB Rushing yards 35.9 0-58 Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 26.5 7-48 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Bellinger TE Receiving yards 34.1 8-61 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Gunnar Helm TE Receiving yards 27.4 2-46 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Cedric Gray LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Erick Hallett DB Tackles 4.1 3-7 Alontae Taylor DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Marcus Harris DB Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Jeffery Simmons DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ John Franklin-Myers DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ NEW YORK JETS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Geno Smith QB Passing yards 229.2 156-303 Pass attempts 31.1 23-41 Completions 20.8 15-28 Passing TDs 1.68 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 9.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Garrett Wilson WR Receiving yards 64.2 30-99 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Breece Hall RB Rushing yards 55.4 20-83 Carries 14.4 9-18 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 23.5 4-48 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Adonai Mitchell WR Receiving yards 45.1 11-80 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Mason Taylor TE Receiving yards 34.1 8-54 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Braelon Allen RB Rushing yards 22.7 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Jarvis Brownlee DB Tackles 4.3 3-6 Dane Belton DB Tackles 4.3 3-6 Kingsley Enagbare DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ T'Vondre Sweat DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Will McDonald DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Joseph Ossai DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Tennessee Titans 7 days, New York Jets 7 days Tennessee Titans recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games New York Jets recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 NYJ 24 TEN 17 NYJ Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status -------------- --- ---- ------------ T'Vondre Sweat DL NYJ Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7362