Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Los Angeles Chargers by 9.5 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.2 combined points, with Los Angeles Chargers at 24.9 and Arizona Cardinals at 15.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Los Angeles Chargers favored by 10.5 points, a 1.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Los Angeles Chargers's margin lands between -7.8 and +26.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 / Arizona Cardinals +9.5 Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers -281 / Arizona Cardinals +281 Win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 73.7% / Arizona Cardinals 26.3% Projected total: 40.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Los Angeles Chargers: 1526.4, Arizona Cardinals: 1376.1 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals ------------------------- -------------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -3.8 +4.0 home_field_vector +1.7 -- neutral_script_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 / Arizona Cardinals +10.5 Consensus moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers -535 / Arizona Cardinals +400 Market no-vig win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 80.8% / Arizona Cardinals 19.2% Spread range across books: -10.5 to -10.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.235713+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Los Angeles Chargers EV% Arizona Cardinals EV% ----------- -------------------- ------ ----------------- ------ betmgm -600 -14.0% +425 +37.9% betonlineag -525 -12.2% +400 +31.4% betrivers -625 -14.5% +430 +39.2% betus -525 -12.2% +405 +32.7% bovada -575 -13.4% +400 +31.4% draftkings -535 -12.5% +400 +31.4% fanduel -650 -14.9% +480 +52.4% lowvig -525 -12.2% +400 +31.4% mybookieag -599 -14.0% +390 +28.7% Spread: Book Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals ----------- -------------------- ----------------- betmgm -10.5 (-105) +10.5 (-112) betonlineag -10.0 (-105) +10.0 (-115) betrivers -10.5 (-107) +10.5 (-114) betus -10.0 (-110) +10.0 (-110) bovada -10.0 (-110) +10.0 (-110) draftkings -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) fanduel -10.5 (-106) +10.5 (-114) lowvig -10.0 (+100) +10.0 (-110) mybookieag -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Los Angeles Chargers -11.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -10.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arizona Cardinals 15.5 -- Los Angeles Chargers 24.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- Los Angeles Chargers margin -7.8 +0.3 +9.4 +18.4 +26.5 Total points 23.3 31.3 40.4 49.5 57.4 Probability Los Angeles Chargers covers the market spread: 46.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Justin Herbert QB Passing yards 218.7 146-298 Pass attempts 28.4 20-34 Completions 18.2 12-23 Passing TDs 1.16 69% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 35.6 17-63 Rushing TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Omarion Hampton RB Rushing yards 61.7 26-106 Carries 12.6 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 26.2 7-49 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Quentin Johnston WR Receiving yards 54.7 21-98 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Ladd McConkey WR Receiving yards 46.7 13-83 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Keaton Mitchell RB Rushing yards 38.0 2-69 Carries 6.4 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tre Harris WR Receiving yards 36.1 2-56 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Njoku TE Receiving yards 34.8 9-64 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Charlie Kolar TE Receiving yards 25.1 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Daiyan Henley LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Tony Jefferson DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Teair Tart DL Tackles 2.3 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Dalvin Tomlinson DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Tuli Tuipulotu LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Justin Eboigbe DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ARIZONA CARDINALS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jacoby Brissett QB Passing yards 228.9 156-303 Pass attempts 37.8 30-47 Completions 24.2 18-34 Passing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 16.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Wilson WR Receiving yards 71.2 37-121 Receptions 5.5 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Trey McBride TE Receiving yards 57.9 32-92 Receptions 5.9 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Marvin Harrison WR Receiving yards 51.5 18-81 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Kendrick Bourne WR Receiving yards 40.8 7-82 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Allgeier RB Rushing yards 38.1 2-60 Carries 10.6 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mack Wilson LB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Budda Baker DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Roy Lopez DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Darius Robinson DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Sweat LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Walter Nolen DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Los Angeles Chargers 7 days, Arizona Cardinals 7 days Los Angeles Chargers recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Arizona Cardinals recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 LAC 15 ARI 17 ARI ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7363