Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Miami Dolphins by 5.7 points, giving them a 65% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 36.6 combined points, with Las Vegas Raiders at 15.4 and Miami Dolphins at 21.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Las Vegas Raiders favored by 3.5 points, a 9.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Las Vegas Raiders's margin lands between -23.3 and +11.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Las Vegas Raiders +5.7 / Miami Dolphins -5.7 Moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders +186 / Miami Dolphins -186 Win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 35.0% / Miami Dolphins 65.0% Projected total: 36.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Las Vegas Raiders: 1327.1, Miami Dolphins: 1448.4 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Las Vegas Raiders Miami Dolphins ------------------------- ----------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 -5.4 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -3.1 home_field_vector +5.9 -- neutral_script_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 / Miami Dolphins +3.5 Consensus moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders -198 / Miami Dolphins +164 Market no-vig win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 63.7% / Miami Dolphins 36.3% Spread range across books: -3.5 to -3.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.243993+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Las Vegas Raiders EV% Miami Dolphins EV% ----------- ----------------- ------ -------------- ------ betmgm -190 -46.6% +155 +65.9% betonlineag -190 -46.6% +165 +72.4% betrivers -195 -47.1% +145 +59.3% betus -190 -46.6% +163 +71.1% bovada -200 -47.6% +170 +75.6% draftkings -198 -47.4% +164 +71.7% fanduel -194 -47.0% +162 +70.4% lowvig -190 -46.6% +165 +72.4% mybookieag -200 -47.6% +155 +65.9% Spread: Book Las Vegas Raiders Miami Dolphins ----------- ----------------- -------------- betmgm -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-108) betonlineag -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) betrivers -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) betus -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) bovada -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) draftkings -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) fanduel -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) lowvig -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-105) mybookieag -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Miami Dolphins 21.3 -- Las Vegas Raiders 15.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Las Vegas Raiders margin -23.3 -14.8 -5.7 +3.3 +11.2 Total points 19.4 27.7 36.6 45.9 54.4 Probability Las Vegas Raiders covers the market spread: 24.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kirk Cousins QB Passing yards 208.2 135-310 Pass attempts 29.9 22-40 Completions 18.6 13-26 Passing TDs 1.37 74% 1+, 40% 2+ Rushing yards 4.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Ashton Jeanty RB Rushing yards 62.7 27-110 Carries 13.6 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 29.7 10-57 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Brock Bowers TE Receiving yards 50.2 25-86 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Jalen Nailor WR Receiving yards 39.2 5-71 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Michael Mayer TE Receiving yards 34.7 9-65 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tre Tucker WR Rushing yards 5.5 2-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 30.9 -- Receptions 3.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jack Bech WR Receiving yards 25.3 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremy Chinn DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Nakobe Dean LB Tackles 3.7 2-6 Adam Butler DL Tackles 2.4 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Thomas Booker DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tonka Hemingway DL Sacks 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Maxx Crosby DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ MIAMI DOLPHINS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malik Willis QB Passing yards 167.7 94-306 Pass attempts 21.0 13-32 Completions 15.0 10-24 Passing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 30.2 12-57 Rushing TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Devon Achane RB Rushing yards 66.2 31-103 Carries 14.2 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 26.1 7-45 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jaylen Wright RB Rushing yards 32.8 -- Carries 8.9 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Greg Dulcich TE Receiving yards 30.0 4-42 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jalen Tolbert WR Receiving yards 27.4 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Malik Washington WR Rushing yards 8.6 2-16 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 19.7 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Jordyn Brooks LB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Tyrel Dodson LB Tackles 4.4 3-6 Kenneth Grant DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Chop Robinson LB Tackles 1.5 1-2 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Zach Sieler DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Clelin Ferrell DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Las Vegas Raiders 7 days, Miami Dolphins 7 days Las Vegas Raiders recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Miami Dolphins recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2024 LV 19 MIA 34 MIA 2023 LV 13 MIA 20 MIA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7364