Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Minnesota Vikings by 2.8 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 33.5 combined points, with Minnesota Vikings at 18.2 and Green Bay Packers at 15.4. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Minnesota Vikings favored by 1.5 points, a 1.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Minnesota Vikings's margin lands between -14.2 and +19.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: J.J. McCarthy (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Minnesota Vikings -2.8 / Green Bay Packers +2.8 Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings -135 / Green Bay Packers +135 Win probability: Minnesota Vikings 57.5% / Green Bay Packers 42.5% Projected total: 33.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Minnesota Vikings: 1560.9, Green Bay Packers: 1529.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers ------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.9 home_field_vector +14.9 -- neutral_script_efficiency -9.8 +19.5 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 / Green Bay Packers +1.5 Consensus moneyline: Minnesota Vikings -118 / Green Bay Packers -102 Market no-vig win probability: Minnesota Vikings 51.7% / Green Bay Packers 48.3% Spread range across books: -1.5 to -1.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.240159+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Minnesota Vikings EV% Green Bay Packers EV% ----------- ----------------- ----- ----------------- ------ betmgm -120 +5.5% +100 -15.1% betonlineag -120 +5.5% +100 -15.1% betrivers -114 +8.0% -109 -18.6% bovada -120 +5.5% +100 -15.1% draftkings -118 +6.3% -102 -15.9% fanduel -118 +6.3% +100 -15.1% lowvig -120 +5.5% +100 -15.1% mybookieag -123 +4.3% -103 -16.3% Spread: Book Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers ----------- ----------------- ----------------- betmgm -1.0 (-110) +1.0 (-108) betonlineag -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) betrivers -1.0 (-105) +1.0 (-115) betus -1.0 (-115) +1.0 (-105) bovada -1.5 (-110) +1.5 (-110) draftkings -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) fanduel -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) lowvig -1.5 (+100) +1.5 (-110) mybookieag -1.5 (-110) +1.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Green Bay Packers 15.4 -- Minnesota Vikings 18.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Minnesota Vikings margin -14.2 -6.1 +3.0 +11.7 +19.9 Total points 16.3 24.6 33.6 42.7 51.0 Probability Minnesota Vikings covers the market spread: 54.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MINNESOTA VIKINGS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kyler Murray QB Passing yards 190.6 117-222 Pass attempts 32.0 24-39 Completions 21.4 16-25 Passing TDs 1.18 69% 1+, 33% 2+ Rushing yards 32.9 14-39 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Aaron Jones RB Rushing yards 53.8 18-82 Carries 12.8 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 20.5 1-29 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justin Jefferson WR Receiving yards 46.0 12-82 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Mason RB Rushing yards 45.2 10-73 Carries 8.4 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 6.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jauan Jennings WR Receiving yards 42.2 8-56 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Jordan Addison WR Receiving yards 39.7 6-61 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ T.J. Hockenson TE Receiving yards 31.2 6-57 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Josh Oliver TE Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Blake Cashman LB Tackles 5.0 4-7 Eric Wilson LB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Levi Drake Rodriguez DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Dallas Turner LB Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Andrew Van Ginkel LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ GREEN BAY PACKERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jordan Love QB Passing yards 184.0 111-257 Pass attempts 30.3 22-42 Completions 18.3 12-24 Passing TDs 1.41 76% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 15.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Jacobs RB Rushing yards 56.0 20-87 Carries 13.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Christian Watson WR Receiving yards 53.6 20-88 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.72 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Jayden Reed WR Rushing yards 13.6 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.7 8-50 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Tucker Kraft TE Receiving yards 41.1 16-84 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Matthew Golden WR Rushing yards 9.5 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 34.4 0-63 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Jonnu Smith TE Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zaire Franklin LB Tackles 4.6 3-7 Evan Williams DB Tackles 4.1 3-5 Javon Hargrave DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Karl Brooks DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Micah Parsons LB Sacks 1.25 71% 1+, 36% 2+ Devonte Wyatt DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Minnesota Vikings 7 days, Green Bay Packers 7 days Minnesota Vikings recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Green Bay Packers recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 GB 3 MIN 16 MIN 2025 MIN 6 GB 23 GB 2024 GB 25 MIN 27 MIN 2024 MIN 31 GB 29 MIN 2023 GB 33 MIN 10 GB Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------ J.J. McCarthy QB MIN Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7365