Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Philadelphia Eagles by 8.2 points, giving them a 71% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 39.5 combined points, with Philadelphia Eagles at 23.7 and Washington Commanders at 15.8. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Philadelphia Eagles favored by 4.5 points, a 3.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Philadelphia Eagles's margin lands between -9.5 and +25.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Rachaad White (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -8.2 / Washington Commanders +8.2 Moneyline: Philadelphia Eagles -243 / Washington Commanders +243 Win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 70.8% / Washington Commanders 29.2% Projected total: 39.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Philadelphia Eagles: 1565.8, Washington Commanders: 1455.1 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Philadelphia Eagles Washington Commanders ------------------------- ------------------- --------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +4.0 home_field_vector +6.7 -- neutral_script_efficiency +1.8 +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 / Washington Commanders +4.5 Consensus moneyline: Philadelphia Eagles -218 / Washington Commanders +180 Market no-vig win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 65.7% / Washington Commanders 34.3% Spread range across books: -5.5 to -4.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.254637+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Philadelphia Eagles EV% Washington Commanders EV% ----------- ------------------- ----- --------------------- ------ betmgm -210 +4.6% +175 -19.8% betonlineag -220 +3.0% +186 -16.6% betrivers -215 +3.8% +165 -22.7% betus -225 +2.3% +190 -15.4% bovada -235 +1.0% +195 -14.0% draftkings -218 +3.3% +180 -18.4% fanduel -240 +0.4% +198 -13.1% lowvig -220 +3.0% +186 -16.6% mybookieag -234 +1.1% +178 -18.9% Spread: Book Philadelphia Eagles Washington Commanders ----------- ------------------- --------------------- betmgm -4.5 (-108) +4.5 (-110) betonlineag -4.5 (-115) +4.5 (-105) betrivers -4.5 (-112) +4.5 (-109) betus -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) bovada -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) draftkings -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) fanduel -5.5 (-105) +5.5 (-115) lowvig -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (+100) mybookieag -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -4.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Washington Commanders 15.8 -- Philadelphia Eagles 23.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- Philadelphia Eagles margin -9.5 -1.3 +8.0 +17.2 +25.5 Total points 22.1 30.2 39.2 48.8 57.0 Probability Philadelphia Eagles covers the market spread: 60.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jalen Hurts QB Passing yards 229.2 156-300 Pass attempts 31.2 23-40 Completions 19.1 14-24 Passing TDs 1.49 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 31.5 13-48 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Saquon Barkley RB Rushing yards 73.8 38-116 Carries 15.6 10-22 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 25.7 6-47 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ DeVonta Smith WR Receiving yards 55.0 21-78 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Dallas Goedert TE Receiving yards 40.0 14-68 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Tank Bigsby RB Rushing yards 37.2 2-67 Carries 7.6 2-14 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dontayvion Wicks WR Receiving yards 35.5 2-70 Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Johnny Mundt TE Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 1.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jonathan Jones DB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Zack Baun LB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Nolan Smith LB Tackles 2.2 0-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Moro Ojomo DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Jalyx Hunt LB Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Jalen Carter DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Daniels QB Passing yards 183.8 111-240 Pass attempts 28.5 20-36 Completions 17.6 12-23 Passing TDs 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 35.8 17-55 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Terry McLaurin WR Receiving yards 57.4 23-74 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB Rushing yards 53.0 18-91 Carries 11.3 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 18.3 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Stefon Diggs WR Receiving yards 48.7 15-93 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Rachaad White RB Rushing yards 42.1 7-62 Carries 8.8 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chigoziem Okonkwo TE Receiving yards 26.1 1-40 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ John Bates TE Receiving yards 12.3 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Nick Cross DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Jeremy Reaves DB Tackles 4.0 2-5 Javon Kinlaw DL Tackles 2.7 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tim Settle DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Odafe Oweh LB Sacks 1.19 70% 1+, 33% 2+ Dorance Armstrong DL Sacks 0.92 60% 1+, 23% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Philadelphia Eagles 7 days, Washington Commanders 7 days Philadelphia Eagles recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Washington Commanders recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 WAS 24 PHI 17 WAS 2025 PHI 29 WAS 18 PHI 2024 WAS 23 PHI 55 PHI 2024 PHI 33 WAS 36 WAS 2024 WAS 18 PHI 26 PHI Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------------ Rachaad White RB WAS Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7366