Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 14, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Dallas Cowboys by 0.4 points, giving them a 51% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 56.1 combined points, with New York Giants at 27.9 and Dallas Cowboys at 28.4. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Dallas Cowboys favored by 2.5 points, a 2.1-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New York Giants's margin lands between -17.8 and +16.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New York Giants +0.4 / Dallas Cowboys -0.4 Moneyline: New York Giants +105 / Dallas Cowboys -105 Win probability: New York Giants 48.8% / Dallas Cowboys 51.2% Projected total: 56.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New York Giants: 1410.2, Dallas Cowboys: 1447.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New York Giants Dallas Cowboys ------------------------- --------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +4.0 home_field_vector +0.5 -- neutral_script_efficiency +1.5 +7.7 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: New York Giants +2.5 / Dallas Cowboys -2.5 Consensus moneyline: New York Giants +124 / Dallas Cowboys -148 Market no-vig win probability: New York Giants 42.8% / Dallas Cowboys 57.2% Spread range across books: +2.5 to +3.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.267168+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book New York Giants EV% Dallas Cowboys EV% ----------- --------------- ------ -------------- ------ betmgm +120 +7.4% -145 -13.5% betonlineag +140 +17.1% -160 -16.8% betrivers +130 +12.2% -159 -16.6% betus +138 +16.1% -160 -16.8% bovada +135 +14.7% -160 -16.8% draftkings +124 +9.3% -148 -14.2% fanduel +122 +8.3% -144 -13.2% lowvig +140 +17.1% -160 -16.8% mybookieag +125 +9.8% -160 -16.8% Spread: Book New York Giants Dallas Cowboys ----------- --------------- -------------- betmgm +2.5 (-102) -2.5 (-115) betonlineag +3.0 (-115) -3.0 (-105) betrivers +2.5 (-104) -2.5 (-118) betus +3.0 (-115) -3.0 (-105) bovada +3.0 (-115) -3.0 (-105) draftkings +2.5 (-105) -2.5 (-115) fanduel +2.5 (-102) -2.5 (-120) lowvig +3.0 (-110) -3.0 (+100) mybookieag +3.0 (-110) -3.0 (-110) Line movement: opened New York Giants +2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Dallas Cowboys 28.4 -- New York Giants 27.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------------- ----- ---- ---- ---- ----- New York Giants margin -17.8 -9.5 -0.4 +8.5 +16.9 Total points 38.9 47.1 56.3 65.5 73.6 Probability New York Giants covers the market spread: 56.3% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW YORK GIANTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaxson Dart QB Passing yards 232.5 159-321 Pass attempts 28.9 21-36 Completions 18.8 14-25 Passing TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 43.4 25-72 Rushing TDs 0.93 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Malik Nabers WR Receiving yards 65.2 31-157 Receptions 4.2 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Cam Skattebo RB Rushing yards 55.2 20-92 Carries 12.5 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 26.6 7-47 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Darius Slayton WR Receiving yards 52.3 18-83 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Theo Johnson TE Receiving yards 48.3 23-76 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Darnell Mooney WR Receiving yards 41.5 8-66 Receptions 2.6 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Isaiah Likely TE Receiving yards 39.0 14-71 Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Najee Harris RB Rushing yards 28.3 -- Carries 7.3 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tremaine Edmunds LB Tackles 4.7 3-7 Tyler Nubin DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Shelby Harris DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ D.J. Reader DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Brian Burns LB Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Darius Alexander DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ DALLAS COWBOYS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dak Prescott QB Passing yards 274.4 201-382 Pass attempts 33.0 25-44 Completions 21.3 16-29 Passing TDs 1.70 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Rushing yards 13.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Javonte Williams RB Rushing yards 77.4 42-104 Carries 14.3 9-19 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ George Pickens WR Receiving yards 73.3 39-134 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ CeeDee Lamb WR Receiving yards 69.1 35-114 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Ryan Flournoy WR Rushing yards 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 44.6 11-88 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Jaydon Blue RB Rushing yards 38.9 3-72 Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Jake Ferguson TE Receiving yards 34.1 8-59 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Brevyn Spann-Ford TE Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 1.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Jalen Thompson DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Daron Bland DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Otito Ogbonnia DL Tackles 2.4 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Quinnen Williams DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Von Miller LB Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Tyrus Wheat DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: New York Giants 7 days, Dallas Cowboys 7 days New York Giants recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Dallas Cowboys recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 DAL 17 NYG 34 NYG 2025 NYG 37 DAL 40 DAL 2024 NYG 20 DAL 27 DAL 2024 DAL 20 NYG 15 DAL 2023 NYG 17 DAL 49 DAL ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7367