Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs NFL, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 15, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Denver Broncos by 6.4 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 34.9 combined points, with Kansas City Chiefs at 14.3 and Denver Broncos at 20.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Kansas City Chiefs favored by 3.0 points, a 9.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kansas City Chiefs's margin lands between -23.3 and +10.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kansas City Chiefs +6.4 / Denver Broncos -6.4 Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs +201 / Denver Broncos -201 Win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 33.2% / Denver Broncos 66.8% Projected total: 34.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kansas City Chiefs: 1491.0, Denver Broncos: 1624.3 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos ------------------------- ------------------ -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.6 +2.3 home_field_vector +10.1 -- neutral_script_efficiency -19.5 +12.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 / Denver Broncos +3.0 Consensus moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs -148 / Denver Broncos +124 Market no-vig win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 57.2% / Denver Broncos 42.8% Spread range across books: -3.0 to -2.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.274873+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Kansas City Chiefs EV% Denver Broncos EV% ----------- ------------------ ------ -------------- ------ betmgm -150 -44.7% +125 +50.3% betonlineag -140 -43.1% +120 +47.0% betrivers -141 -43.3% +114 +43.0% betus -140 -43.1% +120 +47.0% bovada -150 -44.7% +130 +53.7% draftkings -148 -44.4% +124 +49.7% fanduel -144 -43.8% +122 +48.3% lowvig -140 -43.1% +120 +47.0% mybookieag -151 -44.8% +118 +45.7% Spread: Book Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos ----------- ------------------ -------------- betmgm -2.5 (-118) +2.5 (+100) betonlineag -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) betrivers -2.5 (-115) +2.5 (-106) betus -3.0 (+105) +3.0 (-125) bovada -2.5 (-120) +2.5 (+100) draftkings -3.0 (-105) +3.0 (-115) fanduel -2.5 (-115) +2.5 (-105) lowvig -2.5 (-105) +2.5 (-105) mybookieag -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Denver Broncos 20.6 -- Kansas City Chiefs 14.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Kansas City Chiefs margin -23.3 -15.3 -6.4 +2.8 +10.7 Total points 17.5 25.5 35.0 44.1 52.1 Probability Kansas City Chiefs covers the market spread: 24.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Patrick Mahomes QB Passing yards 219.8 147-277 Pass attempts 34.9 27-41 Completions 21.5 16-28 Passing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Rushing yards 24.7 6-41 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Kenneth Walker RB Rushing yards 61.2 26-105 Carries 13.9 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.54 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 24.9 6-49 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rashee Rice WR Rushing yards 6.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 59.0 25-95 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Tyquan Thornton WR Receiving yards 46.0 12-72 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Travis Kelce TE Receiving yards 43.3 18-80 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Xavier Worthy WR Rushing yards 10.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.7 8-56 Receptions 3.4 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Emari Demercado RB Rushing yards 31.5 -- Carries 5.9 0-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.9 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Noah Gray TE Receiving yards 26.6 1-38 Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nick Bolton LB Tackles 4.7 3-6 Chamarri Conner DB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Khyiris Tonga DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Chris Jones DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ George Karlaftis DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ DENVER BRONCOS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bo Nix QB Passing yards 224.3 151-295 Pass attempts 36.3 28-45 Completions 23.6 18-29 Passing TDs 1.02 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 23.4 5-38 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ J.K. Dobbins RB Rushing yards 68.2 33-92 Carries 14.3 9-17 Rushing TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Receiving yards 8.8 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Waddle WR Receiving yards 51.3 17-74 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ R.J. Harvey RB Rushing yards 48.1 12-68 Carries 12.7 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 27.7 8-49 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Courtland Sutton WR Receiving yards 45.8 12-78 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Troy Franklin WR Rushing yards 2.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 39.4 5-67 Receptions 4.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Evan Engram TE Receiving yards 31.9 6-57 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Adam Trautman TE Receiving yards 23.8 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Singleton LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Talanoa Hufanga DB Tackles 4.2 3-7 Zach Allen DL Tackles 2.3 2-4 Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ D.J. Jones DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Nik Bonitto LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Malcolm Roach DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Kansas City Chiefs 7 days, Denver Broncos 7 days Kansas City Chiefs recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Denver Broncos recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 DEN 20 KC 13 DEN 2025 KC 19 DEN 22 DEN 2024 KC 0 DEN 38 DEN 2024 DEN 14 KC 16 KC 2023 KC 9 DEN 24 DEN ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7368