Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 18, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Buffalo Bills by 6.6 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.8 combined points, with Buffalo Bills at 31.3 and Detroit Lions at 24.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Buffalo Bills favored by 3.0 points, a 3.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Buffalo Bills's margin lands between -10.5 and +23.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Thomas Harper (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Buffalo Bills -6.6 / Detroit Lions +6.6 Moneyline: Buffalo Bills -204 / Detroit Lions +204 Win probability: Buffalo Bills 67.1% / Detroit Lions 32.9% Projected total: 55.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 12:01 PM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Buffalo Bills: 1615.2, Detroit Lions: 1564.0 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Buffalo Bills Detroit Lions ------------------------- ------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -0.1 +2.6 home_field_vector +6.8 -- neutral_script_efficiency +18.6 -15.1 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Buffalo Bills -3.0 / Detroit Lions +3.0 Consensus moneyline: Buffalo Bills -155 / Detroit Lions +130 Market no-vig win probability: Buffalo Bills 58.3% / Detroit Lions 41.7% Spread range across books: -3.0 to -3.0 (4 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T12:20:02.254282+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Buffalo Bills EV% Detroit Lions EV% ---------- ------------- ------ ------------- ------ betmgm -165 +7.8% +140 -21.1% betrivers -165 +7.8% +133 -23.4% draftkings -155 +10.4% +130 -24.4% Spread: Book Buffalo Bills Detroit Lions ----------- ------------- ------------- betmgm -3.0 (-105) +3.0 (-115) betonlineag -3.0 (-110) +3.0 (-110) betrivers -3.0 (-105) +3.0 (-117) draftkings -3.0 (-110) +3.0 (-110) lowvig -3.0 (-105) +3.0 (-105) Line movement: opened Buffalo Bills -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Detroit Lions 24.5 -- Buffalo Bills 31.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Buffalo Bills margin -10.5 -2.4 +6.8 +16.0 +23.8 Total points 38.5 46.7 55.7 64.8 73.3 Probability Buffalo Bills covers the market spread: 60.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BUFFALO BILLS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Josh Allen QB Passing yards 232.3 159-304 Pass attempts 30.6 22-38 Completions 20.8 15-26 Passing TDs 1.54 78% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 40.2 22-64 Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ James Cook RB Rushing yards 65.9 30-110 Carries 14.5 9-24 Rushing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 19.6 0-32 Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Khalil Shakir WR Receiving yards 58.2 24-101 Receptions 4.9 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ D.J. Moore WR Rushing yards 8.0 0-16 Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 48.2 14-91 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ Dalton Kincaid TE Receiving yards 47.1 22-78 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.54 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Dawson Knox TE Receiving yards 38.9 13-66 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Ray Davis RB Rushing yards 36.4 1-91 Carries 7.5 2-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Keon Coleman WR Receiving yards 34.9 1-54 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Dee Alford DB Tackles 4.4 3-7 Geno Stone DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Deone Walker DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ T.J. Sanders DL Tackles 1.1 1-1 Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Ed Oliver DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Gregory Rousseau DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ DETROIT LIONS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jared Goff QB Passing yards 224.3 151-272 Pass attempts 35.8 28-45 Completions 22.6 17-29 Passing TDs 1.64 80% 1+, 49% 2+ Rushing yards 8.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jameson Williams WR Rushing yards 1.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 77.4 43-114 Receptions 5.1 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Receiving yards 74.7 41-124 Receptions 5.7 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Jahmyr Gibbs RB Rushing yards 60.0 24-132 Carries 13.4 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Receiving yards 33.9 15-69 Receptions 4.0 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Isiah Pacheco RB Rushing yards 45.0 10-63 Carries 11.0 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Sam LaPorta TE Receiving yards 41.5 16-70 Receptions 4.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Isaac TeSlaa WR Receiving yards 31.5 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Brock Wright TE Receiving yards 21.6 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Jack Campbell LB Tackles 5.3 4-8 Devin White LB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Alim McNeill DL Tackles 1.1 1-1 Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Aidan Hutchinson DL Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ D.J. Wonnum LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Buffalo Bills 4 days, Detroit Lions 4 days Buffalo Bills recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Detroit Lions recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 BUF 48 DET 42 BUF Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------ Thomas Harper DB DET Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7369