New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Baltimore Ravens by 9.1 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 37.2 combined points, with Baltimore Ravens at 23.3 and New Orleans Saints at 14.1. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Baltimore Ravens favored by 7.5 points, a 1.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Baltimore Ravens's margin lands between -8.0 and +26.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Jordyn Tyson (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Baltimore Ravens -9.1 / New Orleans Saints +9.1 Moneyline: Baltimore Ravens -267 / New Orleans Saints +267 Win probability: Baltimore Ravens 72.8% / New Orleans Saints 27.2% Projected total: 37.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Baltimore Ravens: 1549.8, New Orleans Saints: 1426.3 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Baltimore Ravens New Orleans Saints ------------------------- ---------------- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.4 +2.3 home_field_vector -4.6 -- neutral_script_efficiency +5.3 -10.4 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 / New Orleans Saints +7.5 Consensus moneyline: Baltimore Ravens -355 / New Orleans Saints +280 Market no-vig win probability: Baltimore Ravens 74.8% / New Orleans Saints 25.2% Spread range across books: -7.5 to -7.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.289413+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Baltimore Ravens EV% New Orleans Saints EV% ---------- ---------------- ----- ------------------ ----- draftkings -355 -6.7% +280 +3.4% Spread: Book Baltimore Ravens New Orleans Saints ---------- ---------------- ------------------ betus -7.5 (-110) +7.5 (-110) draftkings -7.5 (-110) +7.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New Orleans Saints 14.1 -- Baltimore Ravens 23.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- Baltimore Ravens margin -8.0 +0.2 +9.2 +18.3 +26.7 Total points 20.0 28.1 37.5 46.8 55.0 Probability Baltimore Ravens covers the market spread: 55.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BALTIMORE RAVENS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lamar Jackson QB Passing yards 170.4 97-216 Pass attempts 26.1 18-36 Completions 15.2 10-20 Passing TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 21.6 3-34 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Derrick Henry RB Rushing yards 72.3 37-122 Carries 15.0 10-24 Rushing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 31% 2+ Receiving yards 19.5 0-33 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zay Flowers WR Rushing yards 6.8 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 56.6 23-98 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Justice Hill RB Rushing yards 31.2 -- Carries 5.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 22.2 3-38 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Rashod Bateman WR Receiving yards 27.2 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Mark Andrews TE Receiving yards 21.6 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Durham Smythe TE Receiving yards 5.9 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Roquan Smith LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Kyle Hamilton DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Travis Jones DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Tavius Robinson LB Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Trey Hendrickson DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tyler Shough QB Passing yards 282.7 210-351 Pass attempts 33.1 25-43 Completions 22.5 17-29 Passing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 29.1 10-51 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Chris Olave WR Receiving yards 79.0 45-126 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Travis Etienne RB Rushing yards 46.7 11-67 Carries 13.6 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 21.7 2-43 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Devaughn Vele WR Receiving yards 44.6 11-82 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Juwan Johnson TE Receiving yards 43.0 17-67 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Alvin Kamara RB Rushing yards 37.8 2-62 Carries 11.5 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Fant TE Receiving yards 20.9 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Kaden Elliss LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Kool-Aid McKinstry DB Tackles 3.5 2-5 Davon Godchaux DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Cameron Jordan LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Chase Young LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Baltimore Ravens 7 days, New Orleans Saints 7 days Baltimore Ravens recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games New Orleans Saints recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------------ Jordyn Tyson WR NO Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7371