Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Chicago Bears by 2.7 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 32.8 combined points, with Chicago Bears at 17.7 and Minnesota Vikings at 15.0. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Chicago Bears by 3.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Chicago Bears's margin lands between -14.7 and +19.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: J.J. McCarthy (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Chicago Bears -2.7 / Minnesota Vikings +2.7 Moneyline: Chicago Bears -134 / Minnesota Vikings +134 Win probability: Chicago Bears 57.3% / Minnesota Vikings 42.7% Projected total: 32.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Chicago Bears: 1533.0, Minnesota Vikings: 1560.9 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings ------------------------- ------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.9 home_field_vector +13.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 -9.8 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Chicago Bears -3.5 / Minnesota Vikings +3.5 Consensus moneyline: Chicago Bears -198 / Minnesota Vikings +164 Market no-vig win probability: Chicago Bears 63.7% / Minnesota Vikings 36.3% Spread range across books: -3.5 to -3.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.291950+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Chicago Bears EV% Minnesota Vikings EV% ---------- ------------- ------ ----------------- ------ draftkings -198 -13.7% +164 +12.6% Spread: Book Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings ---------- ------------- ----------------- draftkings -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Chicago Bears -3.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Minnesota Vikings 15.0 -- Chicago Bears 17.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Chicago Bears margin -14.7 -6.3 +2.6 +11.9 +19.8 Total points 15.4 23.8 32.7 41.7 49.7 Probability Chicago Bears covers the market spread: 47.3% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CHICAGO BEARS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caleb Williams QB Passing yards 210.2 137-274 Pass attempts 35.7 28-42 Completions 20.5 15-24 Passing TDs 1.51 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 19.6 1-30 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ D'Andre Swift RB Rushing yards 63.6 28-94 Carries 13.4 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.68 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 20.2 1-33 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Luther Burden WR Rushing yards 4.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 54.2 20-93 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Kyle Monangai RB Rushing yards 52.3 17-91 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 22.8 4-38 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rome Odunze WR Receiving yards 50.5 16-84 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Colston Loveland TE Receiving yards 44.0 18-80 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Kalif Raymond WR Receiving yards 35.2 1-57 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Cole Kmet TE Receiving yards 23.5 -- Receptions 2.5 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ T.J. Edwards LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Devin Bush LB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Grady Jarrett DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Gervon Dexter DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Montez Sweat DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Austin Booker DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ MINNESOTA VIKINGS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kyler Murray QB Passing yards 217.8 145-253 Pass attempts 32.0 24-39 Completions 21.4 16-25 Passing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 37.6 19-45 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Aaron Jones RB Rushing yards 61.1 26-94 Carries 12.8 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 23.3 4-33 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justin Jefferson WR Receiving yards 54.0 20-97 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Mason RB Rushing yards 51.3 16-83 Carries 8.4 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 7.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jauan Jennings WR Receiving yards 49.5 16-66 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 1.07 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Jordan Addison WR Receiving yards 46.5 13-71 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ T.J. Hockenson TE Receiving yards 30.1 4-55 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Josh Oliver TE Receiving yards 18.5 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Blake Cashman LB Tackles 5.0 4-7 Eric Wilson LB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Levi Drake Rodriguez DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Dallas Turner LB Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Andrew Van Ginkel LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Chicago Bears 7 days, Minnesota Vikings 7 days Chicago Bears recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Minnesota Vikings recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 CHI 19 MIN 17 CHI 2025 MIN 27 CHI 24 MIN 2024 CHI 12 MIN 30 MIN 2024 MIN 30 CHI 27 MIN 2023 CHI 12 MIN 10 CHI Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------ J.J. McCarthy QB MIN Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7372