Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Houston Texans by 9.5 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.8 combined points, with Houston Texans at 28.2 and Cincinnati Bengals at 18.7. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Houston Texans favored by 2.5 points, a 7.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Houston Texans's margin lands between -7.6 and +26.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Houston Texans -9.5 / Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 Moneyline: Houston Texans -281 / Cincinnati Bengals +281 Win probability: Houston Texans 73.7% / Cincinnati Bengals 26.3% Projected total: 46.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Houston Texans: 1615.9, Cincinnati Bengals: 1475.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Houston Texans Cincinnati Bengals ------------------------- -------------- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -0.8 +1.3 home_field_vector +1.5 -- neutral_script_efficiency +6.8 +2.1 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Houston Texans -2.5 / Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 Consensus moneyline: Houston Texans -135 / Cincinnati Bengals +114 Market no-vig win probability: Houston Texans 55.1% / Cincinnati Bengals 44.9% Spread range across books: -2.5 to -2.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.293949+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Houston Texans EV% Cincinnati Bengals EV% ---------- -------------- ------ ------------------ ------ draftkings -135 +28.3% +114 -43.8% Spread: Book Houston Texans Cincinnati Bengals ---------- -------------- ------------------ betus -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) draftkings -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Houston Texans -2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Cincinnati Bengals 18.7 -- Houston Texans 28.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- Houston Texans margin -7.6 +0.4 +9.3 +18.5 +26.8 Total points 29.3 37.9 47.0 55.9 64.3 Probability Houston Texans covers the market spread: 69.9% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: HOUSTON TEXANS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- C.J. Stroud QB Passing yards 235.6 162-278 Pass attempts 32.2 24-40 Completions 19.4 14-23 Passing TDs 1.34 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Rushing yards 7.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Woody Marks RB Rushing yards 63.3 28-98 Carries 14.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 12.8 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Nico Collins WR Receiving yards 60.5 26-91 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Dalton Schultz TE Receiving yards 54.9 29-90 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ David Montgomery RB Rushing yards 43.1 8-60 Carries 8.5 3-10 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 17.1 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylin Noel WR Rushing yards 1.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 35.3 1-62 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Xavier Hutchinson WR Rushing yards 6.7 5-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 35.0 1-59 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Foster Moreau TE Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reed Blankenship DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Kamari Lassiter DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Tommy Togiai DL Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Sheldon Rankins DL Tackles 1.8 1-2 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Danielle Hunter DL Sacks 1.12 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Will Anderson DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ CINCINNATI BENGALS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Joe Burrow QB Passing yards 201.8 129-285 Pass attempts 32.1 24-43 Completions 21.1 16-29 Passing TDs 1.87 85% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 10.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Marr Chase WR Rushing yards 4.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 67.0 33-102 Receptions 5.9 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Chase Brown RB Rushing yards 61.6 26-90 Carries 14.1 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 26.3 7-38 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Tee Higgins WR Receiving yards 55.9 22-83 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Samaje Perine RB Rushing yards 42.7 7-71 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 13.2 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Andrei Iosivas WR Rushing yards 4.2 4-5 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 33.7 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Mike Gesicki TE Receiving yards 27.8 2-49 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Drew Sample TE Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Battle DB Tackles 4.4 3-6 Bryan Cook DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Boye Mafe LB Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Dexter Lawrence DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Myles Murphy DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jonathan Allen DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Houston Texans 7 days, Cincinnati Bengals 7 days Houston Texans recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Cincinnati Bengals recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 HOU 30 CIN 27 HOU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7373