Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors New England Patriots by 8.1 points, giving them a 71% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.2 combined points, with New England Patriots at 24.1 and Pittsburgh Steelers at 16.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: New England Patriots favored by 4.5 points, a 3.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New England Patriots's margin lands between -9.1 and +25.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New England Patriots -8.1 / Pittsburgh Steelers +8.1 Moneyline: New England Patriots -242 / Pittsburgh Steelers +242 Win probability: New England Patriots 70.8% / Pittsburgh Steelers 29.2% Projected total: 40.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New England Patriots: 1602.8, Pittsburgh Steelers: 1510.9 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers ------------------------- -------------------- ------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.6 home_field_vector +1.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +14.4 -9.5 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: New England Patriots -4.5 / Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 Consensus moneyline: New England Patriots -218 / Pittsburgh Steelers +180 Market no-vig win probability: New England Patriots 65.7% / Pittsburgh Steelers 34.3% Spread range across books: -4.5 to -4.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.309927+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book New England Patriots EV% Pittsburgh Steelers EV% ---------- -------------------- ----- ------------------- ------ draftkings -218 +3.2% +180 -18.1% Spread: Book New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers ---------- -------------------- ------------------- betus -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) draftkings -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) Line movement: opened New England Patriots -4.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -4.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Pittsburgh Steelers 16.0 -- New England Patriots 24.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- New England Patriots margin -9.1 -0.9 +8.0 +17.3 +25.3 Total points 22.5 31.0 40.3 49.3 57.2 Probability New England Patriots covers the market spread: 60.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drake Maye QB Passing yards 263.1 190-377 Pass attempts 29.6 22-40 Completions 19.2 14-27 Passing TDs 1.93 86% 1+, 57% 2+ Rushing yards 43.3 25-68 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ A.J. Brown WR Receiving yards 74.4 40-118 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Rhamondre Stevenson RB Rushing yards 64.3 29-102 Carries 11.8 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 33.6 14-58 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ TreVeyon Henderson RB Rushing yards 56.6 21-114 Carries 11.4 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 21.2 2-33 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Romeo Doubs WR Receiving yards 55.6 22-101 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Hunter Henry TE Receiving yards 34.2 9-56 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Demario Douglas WR Rushing yards 3.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 32.6 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Christian Gonzalez DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Marcus Jones DB Tackles 4.0 2-7 Christian Barmore DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Cory Durden DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Dre'Mont Jones LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Milton Williams DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ PITTSBURGH STEELERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Aaron Rodgers QB Passing yards 186.7 114-257 Pass attempts 31.9 24-43 Completions 20.2 14-28 Passing TDs 0.70 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 9.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jaylen Warren RB Rushing yards 49.3 14-86 Carries 12.5 7-16 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ DK Metcalf WR Receiving yards 45.2 11-82 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Rico Dowdle RB Rushing yards 39.0 3-57 Carries 12.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Receiving yards 20.1 1-37 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Pat Freiermuth TE Receiving yards 32.4 7-52 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Darnell Washington TE Receiving yards 31.8 6-51 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Pittman WR Receiving yards 28.9 -- Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Roman Wilson WR Receiving yards 27.3 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ DeShon Elliott DB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Jaquan Brisker DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Cameron Heyward DL Tackles 3.1 2-5 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Yahya Black DL Tackles 2.9 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Highsmith LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Derrick Harmon DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: New England Patriots 11 days, Pittsburgh Steelers 7 days New England Patriots recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Pittsburgh Steelers recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 PIT 21 NE 14 PIT 2023 NE 21 PIT 18 NE ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7374