Green Bay Packers at New York Jets NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Green Bay Packers by 9.6 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.6 combined points, with New York Jets at 17.8 and Green Bay Packers at 27.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Green Bay Packers favored by 5.5 points, a 4.1-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New York Jets's margin lands between -27.0 and +7.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: T'Vondre Sweat (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New York Jets +9.6 / Green Bay Packers -9.6 Moneyline: New York Jets +285 / Green Bay Packers -285 Win probability: New York Jets 26.0% / Green Bay Packers 74.0% Projected total: 45.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New York Jets: 1340.7, Green Bay Packers: 1529.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New York Jets Green Bay Packers ------------------------- ------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.2 +1.9 home_field_vector +10.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency -20.0 +19.5 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: New York Jets +5.5 / Green Bay Packers -5.5 Consensus moneyline: New York Jets +195 / Green Bay Packers -238 Market no-vig win probability: New York Jets 32.5% / Green Bay Packers 67.5% Spread range across books: +5.5 to +5.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.306320+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book New York Jets EV% Green Bay Packers EV% ---------- ------------- ------ ----------------- ----- draftkings +195 -23.4% -238 +5.1% Spread: Book New York Jets Green Bay Packers ---------- ------------- ----------------- draftkings +5.5 (-110) -5.5 (-110) Line movement: opened New York Jets +6.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +5.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Green Bay Packers 27.6 -- New York Jets 17.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ---- New York Jets margin -27.0 -18.8 -9.7 -0.7 +7.3 Total points 28.1 36.4 45.4 54.4 62.6 Probability New York Jets covers the market spread: 37.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW YORK JETS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Geno Smith QB Passing yards 197.9 125-262 Pass attempts 31.1 23-41 Completions 20.8 15-28 Passing TDs 1.48 77% 1+, 43% 2+ Rushing yards 8.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Garrett Wilson WR Receiving yards 58.8 25-91 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Breece Hall RB Rushing yards 58.7 23-88 Carries 14.4 9-18 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 24.9 6-51 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Adonai Mitchell WR Receiving yards 41.3 7-74 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Mason Taylor TE Receiving yards 28.3 3-45 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Braelon Allen RB Rushing yards 24.1 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jarvis Brownlee DB Tackles 4.3 3-6 Dane Belton DB Tackles 4.3 3-6 Kingsley Enagbare DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ T'Vondre Sweat DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Will McDonald DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Joseph Ossai DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ GREEN BAY PACKERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jordan Love QB Passing yards 205.4 132-287 Pass attempts 30.3 22-42 Completions 18.3 12-24 Passing TDs 2.18 89% 1+, 64% 2+ Rushing yards 16.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Jacobs RB Rushing yards 63.2 28-98 Carries 13.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 19.6 0-32 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Christian Watson WR Receiving yards 56.8 23-93 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Tucker Kraft TE Receiving yards 45.9 20-94 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Jayden Reed WR Rushing yards 14.4 6-23 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 44.2 10-54 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Matthew Golden WR Rushing yards 10.1 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 36.5 2-67 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Jonnu Smith TE Receiving yards 16.2 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zaire Franklin LB Tackles 4.6 3-7 Evan Williams DB Tackles 4.1 3-5 Javon Hargrave DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Karl Brooks DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Micah Parsons LB Sacks 1.25 71% 1+, 36% 2+ Devonte Wyatt DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: New York Jets 7 days, Green Bay Packers 7 days New York Jets recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Green Bay Packers recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status -------------- --- ---- ------------ T'Vondre Sweat DL NYJ Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7375