Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6.5 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 36.8 combined points, with Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 21.6 and Cleveland Browns at 15.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored by 5.5 points, a 1.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tampa Bay Buccaneers's margin lands between -10.9 and +23.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 / Cleveland Browns +6.5 Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -204 / Cleveland Browns +204 Win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 67.1% / Cleveland Browns 32.9% Projected total: 36.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1474.3, Cleveland Browns: 1406.6 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cleveland Browns ------------------------- -------------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.7 home_field_vector +2.2 -- neutral_script_efficiency -3.8 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 / Cleveland Browns +5.5 Consensus moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -245 / Cleveland Browns +200 Market no-vig win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 68.1% / Cleveland Browns 31.9% Spread range across books: -6.5 to -5.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.298294+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Tampa Bay Buccaneers EV% Cleveland Browns EV% ---------- -------------------- ----- ---------------- ----- draftkings -245 -5.6% +200 -1.2% Spread: Book Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cleveland Browns ---------- -------------------- ---------------- betus -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-110) draftkings -5.5 (-110) +5.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -5.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Cleveland Browns 15.3 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -10.9 -2.7 +6.3 +15.4 +23.4 Total points 19.9 27.9 36.9 46.0 54.1 Probability Tampa Bay Buccaneers covers the market spread: 52.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Baker Mayfield QB Passing yards 174.2 101-260 Pass attempts 29.8 22-38 Completions 18.8 13-26 Passing TDs 1.23 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 25.8 7-40 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Bucky Irving RB Rushing yards 55.4 20-75 Carries 14.8 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 26.8 8-58 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Kenneth Gainwell RB Rushing yards 45.2 10-77 Carries 9.5 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Receiving yards 29.3 10-52 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jalen McMillan WR Receiving yards 42.0 8-89 Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Godwin WR Receiving yards 39.1 5-72 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Cade Otton TE Receiving yards 32.9 7-62 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Emeka Egbuka WR Receiving yards 31.8 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christian Rozeboom LB Tackles 4.1 2-6 SirVocea Dennis LB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Vita Vea DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ A'Shawn Robinson DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Al-Quadin Muhammad DL Sacks 1.50 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rakeem Nunez-Roches DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ CLEVELAND BROWNS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Harold Fannin TE Receiving yards 48.4 23-82 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Quinshon Judkins RB Rushing yards 44.3 9-70 Carries 13.6 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 20.4 1-40 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jerry Jeudy WR Receiving yards 35.6 2-58 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Dylan Sampson RB Rushing yards 25.0 -- Carries 8.5 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 21.9 3-46 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Carson Schwesinger LB Tackles 5.1 4-7 Quincy Williams LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Mason Graham DL Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah McGuire DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Maliek Collins DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Michael Hall DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 days, Cleveland Browns 7 days Tampa Bay Buccaneers recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Cleveland Browns recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7376