Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Philadelphia Eagles by 10.3 points, giving them a 75% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.0 combined points, with Tennessee Titans at 14.9 and Philadelphia Eagles at 25.2. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Philadelphia Eagles favored by 4.5 points, a 5.8-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tennessee Titans's margin lands between -27.3 and +6.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tennessee Titans +10.3 / Philadelphia Eagles -10.3 Moneyline: Tennessee Titans +306 / Philadelphia Eagles -306 Win probability: Tennessee Titans 24.6% / Philadelphia Eagles 75.4% Projected total: 40.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tennessee Titans: 1335.6, Philadelphia Eagles: 1565.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tennessee Titans Philadelphia Eagles ------------------------- ---------------- ------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.5 +2.0 home_field_vector +5.0 -- neutral_script_efficiency -3.0 +1.8 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Tennessee Titans +4.5 / Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 Consensus moneyline: Tennessee Titans +170 / Philadelphia Eagles -205 Market no-vig win probability: Tennessee Titans 35.5% / Philadelphia Eagles 64.5% Spread range across books: +4.5 to +4.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.314476+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Tennessee Titans EV% Philadelphia Eagles EV% ---------- ---------------- ------ ------------------- ------ draftkings +170 -33.5% -205 +12.1% Spread: Book Tennessee Titans Philadelphia Eagles ---------- ---------------- ------------------- betus +4.5 (-110) -4.5 (-110) draftkings +4.5 (-110) -4.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Tennessee Titans +4.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +4.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Philadelphia Eagles 25.2 -- Tennessee Titans 14.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Tennessee Titans margin -27.3 -19.6 -10.3 -1.3 +6.8 Total points 22.7 30.8 40.0 49.2 57.7 Probability Tennessee Titans covers the market spread: 33.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TENNESSEE TITANS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cameron Ward QB Passing yards 182.1 109-254 Pass attempts 31.1 23-44 Completions 19.6 14-28 Passing TDs 0.96 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Rushing yards 18.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Tony Pollard RB Rushing yards 65.4 30-119 Carries 13.8 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 15.4 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Wan'Dale Robinson WR Rushing yards 1.6 0-3 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 55.8 22-102 Receptions 5.7 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Calvin Ridley WR Receiving yards 43.6 10-85 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyjae Spears RB Rushing yards 33.0 -- Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 24.4 5-44 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Bellinger TE Receiving yards 25.7 0-46 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Gunnar Helm TE Receiving yards 20.7 -- Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Cedric Gray LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Erick Hallett DB Tackles 4.1 3-7 Alontae Taylor DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Marcus Harris DB Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Jeffery Simmons DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ John Franklin-Myers DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jalen Hurts QB Passing yards 221.3 148-290 Pass attempts 31.2 23-40 Completions 19.1 14-24 Passing TDs 1.40 75% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 30.4 12-47 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Saquon Barkley RB Rushing yards 64.7 29-102 Carries 15.6 10-22 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 22.5 3-41 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ DeVonta Smith WR Receiving yards 54.8 21-77 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Dallas Goedert TE Receiving yards 44.2 19-75 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Dontayvion Wicks WR Receiving yards 35.4 1-70 Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Tank Bigsby RB Rushing yards 32.6 -- Carries 7.6 2-14 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Johnny Mundt TE Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 1.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jonathan Jones DB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Zack Baun LB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Nolan Smith LB Tackles 2.2 0-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Moro Ojomo DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Jalyx Hunt LB Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Jalen Carter DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Tennessee Titans 7 days, Philadelphia Eagles 7 days Tennessee Titans recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Philadelphia Eagles recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7377