Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 8:05 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Denver Broncos by 5.5 points, giving them a 64% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.0 combined points, with Denver Broncos at 25.2 and Jacksonville Jaguars at 19.7. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Denver Broncos favored by 2.5 points, a 3.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Denver Broncos's margin lands between -11.6 and +22.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Denver Broncos -5.5 / Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 Moneyline: Denver Broncos -182 / Jacksonville Jaguars +182 Win probability: Denver Broncos 64.5% / Jacksonville Jaguars 35.5% Projected total: 45.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Denver Broncos: 1624.3, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1573.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars ------------------------- -------------- -------------------- elevation +0.0 -8.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -0.4 home_field_vector +13.6 -- neutral_script_efficiency +12.0 +20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Denver Broncos -2.5 / Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 Consensus moneyline: Denver Broncos -142 / Jacksonville Jaguars +120 Market no-vig win probability: Denver Broncos 56.3% / Jacksonville Jaguars 43.7% Spread range across books: -2.5 to -2.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.331394+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Denver Broncos EV% Jacksonville Jaguars EV% ---------- -------------- ----- -------------------- ------ draftkings -142 +9.9% +120 -21.9% Spread: Book Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars ---------- -------------- -------------------- betus -2.5 (-115) +2.5 (-105) draftkings -2.5 (-115) +2.5 (-105) Line movement: opened Denver Broncos -3.0 (July 14, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), now -2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 188 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Jacksonville Jaguars 19.7 -- Denver Broncos 25.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Denver Broncos margin -11.6 -3.7 +5.5 +14.5 +22.8 Total points 27.4 35.6 45.2 54.2 62.4 Probability Denver Broncos covers the market spread: 58.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DENVER BRONCOS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bo Nix QB Passing yards 246.4 173-324 Pass attempts 36.3 28-45 Completions 23.6 18-29 Passing TDs 1.20 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards 25.8 7-42 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Jaylen Waddle WR Receiving yards 60.0 26-87 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Courtland Sutton WR Receiving yards 53.5 20-91 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ J.K. Dobbins RB Rushing yards 53.3 18-72 Carries 14.3 9-17 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 6.9 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Troy Franklin WR Rushing yards 3.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 46.1 12-78 Receptions 4.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ R.J. Harvey RB Rushing yards 37.6 2-53 Carries 12.7 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 21.6 2-38 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Evan Engram TE Receiving yards 31.5 6-57 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Adam Trautman TE Receiving yards 23.5 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Singleton LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Talanoa Hufanga DB Tackles 4.2 3-7 Zach Allen DL Tackles 2.3 2-4 Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ D.J. Jones DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Nik Bonitto LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Malcolm Roach DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Trevor Lawrence QB Passing yards 222.0 149-256 Pass attempts 31.5 24-35 Completions 19.8 14-23 Passing TDs 2.06 87% 1+, 61% 2+ Rushing yards 24.8 6-36 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Parker Washington WR Rushing yards 0.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 62.0 28-105 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Chris Rodriguez RB Rushing yards 49.5 14-77 Carries 11.7 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.54 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 1.6 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brenton Strange TE Receiving yards 46.0 20-76 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Jakobi Meyers WR Rushing yards 4.0 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 45.4 11-68 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Brian Thomas WR Rushing yards 6.5 5-8 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 43.1 9-66 Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Bhayshul Tuten RB Rushing yards 37.5 2-63 Carries 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Foyesade Oluokun LB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Montaric Brown DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Travon Walker DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Arik Armstead DL Tackles 1.8 1-2 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Josh Hines-Allen DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ B.J. Green DL Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Denver Broncos 6 days, Jacksonville Jaguars 7 days Denver Broncos recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Jacksonville Jaguars recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 JAX 34 DEN 20 JAX ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7378