Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 8:05 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Los Angeles Chargers by 12.1 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 29.5 combined points, with Los Angeles Chargers at 20.9 and Las Vegas Raiders at 8.7. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Los Angeles Chargers favored by 8.5 points, a 3.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Los Angeles Chargers's margin lands between -5.0 and +29.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -12.1 / Las Vegas Raiders +12.1 Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers -373 / Las Vegas Raiders +373 Win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 78.9% / Las Vegas Raiders 21.1% Projected total: 29.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Los Angeles Chargers: 1526.4, Las Vegas Raiders: 1327.1 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Los Angeles Chargers Las Vegas Raiders ------------------------- -------------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -3.8 +3.3 home_field_vector +1.7 -- neutral_script_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 / Las Vegas Raiders +8.5 Consensus moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers -375 / Las Vegas Raiders +295 Market no-vig win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 75.7% / Las Vegas Raiders 24.3% Spread range across books: -8.5 to -8.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.338795+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Los Angeles Chargers EV% Las Vegas Raiders EV% ---------- -------------------- ----- ----------------- ------ draftkings -375 -0.1% +295 -16.6% Spread: Book Los Angeles Chargers Las Vegas Raiders ---------- -------------------- ----------------- betus -8.5 (-110) +8.5 (-110) draftkings -8.5 (-110) +8.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -8.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Las Vegas Raiders 8.7 -- Los Angeles Chargers 20.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Los Angeles Chargers margin -5.0 +3.3 +12.2 +21.1 +29.0 Total points 12.1 20.2 29.6 38.9 47.1 Probability Los Angeles Chargers covers the market spread: 61.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Justin Herbert QB Passing yards 183.7 111-251 Pass attempts 28.4 20-34 Completions 18.2 12-23 Passing TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Rushing yards 29.9 11-53 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Omarion Hampton RB Rushing yards 50.2 15-86 Carries 12.6 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 21.3 2-40 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Quentin Johnston WR Receiving yards 42.6 9-76 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Ladd McConkey WR Receiving yards 36.3 2-65 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Keaton Mitchell RB Rushing yards 30.9 -- Carries 6.4 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 10.7 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tre Harris WR Receiving yards 28.1 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Njoku TE Receiving yards 23.3 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Charlie Kolar TE Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Daiyan Henley LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Tony Jefferson DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Teair Tart DL Tackles 2.3 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Dalvin Tomlinson DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Tuli Tuipulotu LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Justin Eboigbe DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kirk Cousins QB Passing yards 178.1 105-265 Pass attempts 29.9 22-40 Completions 18.6 13-26 Passing TDs 0.96 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Rushing yards 3.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Ashton Jeanty RB Rushing yards 50.1 15-88 Carries 13.6 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 23.7 4-46 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Brock Bowers TE Receiving yards 46.7 21-80 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 1.04 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Jalen Nailor WR Receiving yards 42.2 8-76 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Tre Tucker WR Rushing yards 5.9 3-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 33.2 -- Receptions 3.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Michael Mayer TE Receiving yards 32.3 7-60 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Bech WR Receiving yards 27.3 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremy Chinn DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Nakobe Dean LB Tackles 3.7 2-6 Adam Butler DL Tackles 2.4 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Thomas Booker DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tonka Hemingway DL Sacks 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Maxx Crosby DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Los Angeles Chargers 7 days, Las Vegas Raiders 7 days Los Angeles Chargers recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Las Vegas Raiders recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 LV 14 LAC 31 LAC 2025 LAC 20 LV 9 LAC 2024 LAC 34 LV 20 LAC 2024 LV 10 LAC 22 LAC 2023 LAC 21 LV 63 LV ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7379