Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Seattle Seahawks by 15.7 points, giving them a 85% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 56.0 combined points, with Arizona Cardinals at 20.2 and Seattle Seahawks at 36.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Seattle Seahawks favored by 10.0 points, a 5.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Arizona Cardinals's margin lands between -32.9 and +1.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Arizona Cardinals +15.7 / Seattle Seahawks -15.7 Moneyline: Arizona Cardinals +550 / Seattle Seahawks -550 Win probability: Arizona Cardinals 15.4% / Seattle Seahawks 84.6% Projected total: 56.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Arizona Cardinals: 1376.1, Seattle Seahawks: 1694.5 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks ------------------------- ----------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.0 -2.9 home_field_vector +6.7 -- neutral_script_efficiency -20.0 +5.3 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Arizona Cardinals +10.0 / Seattle Seahawks -10.0 Consensus moneyline: Arizona Cardinals +400 / Seattle Seahawks -535 Market no-vig win probability: Arizona Cardinals 19.2% / Seattle Seahawks 80.8% Spread range across books: +10.0 to +10.0 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.342986+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Arizona Cardinals EV% Seattle Seahawks EV% ---------- ----------------- ------ ---------------- ----- draftkings +400 -23.1% -535 +0.4% Spread: Book Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks ---------- ----------------- ---------------- betus +10.0 (-110) -10.0 (-110) draftkings +10.0 (-110) -10.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Arizona Cardinals +10.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +10.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Seattle Seahawks 36.0 -- Arizona Cardinals 20.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Arizona Cardinals margin -32.9 -24.8 -15.8 -6.8 +1.7 Total points 38.5 46.8 56.3 65.3 73.6 Probability Arizona Cardinals covers the market spread: 32.8% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ARIZONA CARDINALS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jacoby Brissett QB Passing yards 258.4 185-342 Pass attempts 37.8 30-47 Completions 24.2 18-34 Passing TDs 1.68 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 18.8 0-30 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Wilson WR Receiving yards 73.7 40-125 Receptions 5.5 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Trey McBride TE Receiving yards 65.2 40-104 Receptions 5.9 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Marvin Harrison WR Receiving yards 53.4 19-84 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Kendrick Bourne WR Receiving yards 42.2 8-85 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Allgeier RB Rushing yards 30.2 -- Carries 10.6 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mack Wilson LB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Budda Baker DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Roy Lopez DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Darius Robinson DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Sweat LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Walter Nolen DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Sam Darnold QB Passing yards 247.9 175-333 Pass attempts 30.9 23-38 Completions 19.9 14-24 Passing TDs 1.60 80% 1+, 48% 2+ Rushing yards 12.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Rushing yards 8.1 2-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 78.8 45-131 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Zach Charbonnet RB Rushing yards 57.2 22-91 Carries 11.5 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.91 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Receiving yards 20.4 1-28 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cooper Kupp WR Receiving yards 46.8 13-68 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Rashid Shaheed WR Rushing yards 9.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 43.0 9-77 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ A.J. Barner TE Receiving yards 42.3 17-62 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Eric Saubert TE Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ernest Jones LB Tackles 4.6 3-8 Nick Emmanwori DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Leonard Williams DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Byron Murphy DL Tackles 1.8 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Derick Hall LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Demarcus Lawrence LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Arizona Cardinals 7 days, Seattle Seahawks 11 days Arizona Cardinals recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Seattle Seahawks recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 ARI 22 SEA 44 SEA 2025 SEA 23 ARI 20 SEA 2024 SEA 30 ARI 18 SEA 2024 ARI 6 SEA 16 SEA 2023 SEA 21 ARI 20 SEA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7380