Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Dallas Cowboys by 1.7 points, giving them a 55% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.1 combined points, with Dallas Cowboys at 28.4 and Washington Commanders at 26.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Dallas Cowboys favored by 4.5 points, a 2.8-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Dallas Cowboys's margin lands between -15.6 and +18.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Rachaad White (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Dallas Cowboys -1.7 / Washington Commanders +1.7 Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -120 / Washington Commanders +120 Win probability: Dallas Cowboys 54.5% / Washington Commanders 45.5% Projected total: 55.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Dallas Cowboys: 1447.8, Washington Commanders: 1455.1 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Dallas Cowboys Washington Commanders ------------------------- -------------- --------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -0.2 +0.1 home_field_vector -3.7 -- neutral_script_efficiency +7.7 +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 / Washington Commanders +4.5 Consensus moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -198 / Washington Commanders +164 Market no-vig win probability: Dallas Cowboys 63.7% / Washington Commanders 36.3% Spread range across books: -4.5 to -4.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.352317+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Dallas Cowboys EV% Washington Commanders EV% ---------- -------------- ------ --------------------- ------ draftkings -198 -17.9% +164 +20.0% Spread: Book Dallas Cowboys Washington Commanders ---------- -------------- --------------------- betus -4.5 (-105) +4.5 (-115) draftkings -4.5 (-105) +4.5 (-115) Line movement: opened Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -4.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Washington Commanders 26.6 -- Dallas Cowboys 28.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Dallas Cowboys margin -15.6 -7.2 +1.9 +10.8 +18.9 Total points 37.6 45.9 54.8 64.1 72.4 Probability Dallas Cowboys covers the market spread: 42.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DALLAS COWBOYS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dak Prescott QB Passing yards 293.9 221-409 Pass attempts 33.0 25-44 Completions 21.3 16-29 Passing TDs 1.94 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 14.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ George Pickens WR Receiving yards 73.6 40-134 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Javonte Williams RB Rushing yards 70.3 35-95 Carries 14.3 9-19 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 14.2 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ CeeDee Lamb WR Receiving yards 69.4 35-115 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Ryan Flournoy WR Rushing yards 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 44.8 11-88 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Jaydon Blue RB Rushing yards 35.3 -- Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Jake Ferguson TE Receiving yards 33.7 8-59 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Brevyn Spann-Ford TE Receiving yards 15.1 -- Receptions 1.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Jalen Thompson DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Daron Bland DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Otito Ogbonnia DL Tackles 2.4 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Quinnen Williams DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Von Miller LB Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Tyrus Wheat DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Daniels QB Passing yards 227.6 154-298 Pass attempts 28.5 20-36 Completions 17.6 12-23 Passing TDs 1.42 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 44.3 26-68 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Terry McLaurin WR Receiving yards 70.5 36-91 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Stefon Diggs WR Receiving yards 59.7 26-114 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB Rushing yards 52.6 17-90 Carries 11.3 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rachaad White RB Rushing yards 41.8 6-62 Carries 8.8 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.9 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chigoziem Okonkwo TE Receiving yards 38.5 13-59 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ John Bates TE Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Nick Cross DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Jeremy Reaves DB Tackles 4.0 2-5 Javon Kinlaw DL Tackles 2.7 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tim Settle DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Odafe Oweh LB Sacks 1.19 70% 1+, 33% 2+ Dorance Armstrong DL Sacks 0.92 60% 1+, 23% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Dallas Cowboys 7 days, Washington Commanders 7 days Dallas Cowboys recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Washington Commanders recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 DAL 30 WAS 23 DAL 2025 WAS 22 DAL 44 DAL 2024 WAS 23 DAL 19 WAS 2024 DAL 34 WAS 26 DAL 2023 DAL 38 WAS 10 DAL Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------------ Rachaad White RB WAS Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7381