Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors San Francisco 49ers by 7.6 points, giving them a 70% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.6 combined points, with San Francisco 49ers at 26.5 and Miami Dolphins at 19.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: San Francisco 49ers favored by 10.5 points, a 2.9-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, San Francisco 49ers's margin lands between -9.5 and +24.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: San Francisco 49ers -7.6 / Miami Dolphins +7.6 Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers -228 / Miami Dolphins +228 Win probability: San Francisco 49ers 69.5% / Miami Dolphins 30.5% Projected total: 45.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- San Francisco 49ers: 1557.8, Miami Dolphins: 1448.4 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor San Francisco 49ers Miami Dolphins ------------------------- ------------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.9 -4.0 home_field_vector +4.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +8.7 +20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: San Francisco 49ers -10.5 / Miami Dolphins +10.5 Consensus moneyline: San Francisco 49ers -650 / Miami Dolphins +470 Market no-vig win probability: San Francisco 49ers 83.2% / Miami Dolphins 16.8% Spread range across books: -10.5 to -10.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.368527+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book San Francisco 49ers EV% Miami Dolphins EV% ---------- ------------------- ------ -------------- ------ draftkings -650 -19.8% +470 +73.6% Spread: Book San Francisco 49ers Miami Dolphins ---------- ------------------- -------------- betus -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) draftkings -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) Line movement: opened San Francisco 49ers -10.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -10.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Miami Dolphins 19.0 -- San Francisco 49ers 26.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- San Francisco 49ers margin -9.5 -1.6 +7.5 +16.7 +24.6 Total points 28.2 36.5 45.7 54.6 63.0 Probability San Francisco 49ers covers the market spread: 41.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brock Purdy QB Passing yards 228.9 156-310 Pass attempts 30.6 22-33 Completions 20.4 15-24 Passing TDs 2.05 87% 1+, 61% 2+ Rushing yards 26.7 8-41 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Christian McCaffrey RB Rushing yards 71.6 36-122 Carries 14.8 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 35.8 17-56 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ George Kittle TE Receiving yards 55.0 29-93 Receptions 4.7 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Mike Evans WR Receiving yards 44.4 10-78 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Deebo Samuel WR Rushing yards 4.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 39.7 6-59 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jake Tonges TE Receiving yards 39.6 14-68 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Fred Warner LB Tackles 5.3 4-7 Tatum Bethune LB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Malik Mustapha DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Ji'Ayir Brown DB Tackles 3.4 2-5 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Cam Sample DL Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Keion White DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ MIAMI DOLPHINS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malik Willis QB Passing yards 188.5 115-344 Pass attempts 21.0 13-32 Completions 15.0 10-24 Passing TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rushing yards 34.0 15-64 Rushing TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Devon Achane RB Rushing yards 74.6 39-116 Carries 14.2 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.72 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 29.4 10-50 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jaylen Wright RB Rushing yards 37.0 1-74 Carries 8.9 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Receiving yards 13.6 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Greg Dulcich TE Receiving yards 33.1 8-47 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Jalen Tolbert WR Receiving yards 32.0 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Malik Washington WR Rushing yards 10.0 2-18 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 23.0 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Jordyn Brooks LB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Tyrel Dodson LB Tackles 4.4 3-6 Kenneth Grant DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Chop Robinson LB Tackles 1.5 1-2 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Zach Sieler DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Clelin Ferrell DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: San Francisco 49ers 10 days, Miami Dolphins 7 days San Francisco 49ers recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Miami Dolphins recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2024 SF 17 MIA 29 MIA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7382