Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 21, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kansas City Chiefs by 3.0 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.2 combined points, with Kansas City Chiefs at 21.8 and Indianapolis Colts at 18.7. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Kansas City Chiefs favored by 6.5 points, a 3.5-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kansas City Chiefs's margin lands between -14.0 and +20.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 / Indianapolis Colts +3.0 Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs -138 / Indianapolis Colts +138 Win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 58.0% / Indianapolis Colts 42.0% Projected total: 40.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kansas City Chiefs: 1491.0, Indianapolis Colts: 1459.4 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kansas City Chiefs Indianapolis Colts ------------------------- ------------------ ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.6 +2.0 home_field_vector +10.1 -- neutral_script_efficiency -19.5 -0.2 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 / Indianapolis Colts +6.5 Consensus moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs -310 / Indianapolis Colts +250 Market no-vig win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 72.6% / Indianapolis Colts 27.4% Spread range across books: -6.5 to -5.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.374023+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Kansas City Chiefs EV% Indianapolis Colts EV% ---------- ------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ draftkings -310 -23.3% +250 +47.1% Spread: Book Kansas City Chiefs Indianapolis Colts ---------- ------------------ ------------------ betus -5.5 (-110) +5.5 (-110) draftkings -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Kansas City Chiefs -6.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -6.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Indianapolis Colts 18.7 -- Kansas City Chiefs 21.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Kansas City Chiefs margin -14.0 -5.9 +3.0 +12.3 +20.2 Total points 22.9 31.1 40.5 49.7 57.7 Probability Kansas City Chiefs covers the market spread: 40.3% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Patrick Mahomes QB Passing yards 288.4 215-364 Pass attempts 34.9 27-41 Completions 21.5 16-28 Passing TDs 1.33 74% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 32.4 14-54 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Rashee Rice WR Rushing yards 7.5 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Receiving yards 72.2 38-116 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.61 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Tyquan Thornton WR Receiving yards 56.2 22-88 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Kenneth Walker RB Rushing yards 55.7 20-96 Carries 13.9 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 22.6 3-44 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Xavier Worthy WR Rushing yards 12.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 50.9 17-69 Receptions 3.4 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Travis Kelce TE Receiving yards 43.9 18-81 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Emari Demercado RB Rushing yards 28.7 -- Carries 5.9 0-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Noah Gray TE Receiving yards 27.0 2-39 Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nick Bolton LB Tackles 4.7 3-6 Chamarri Conner DB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Khyiris Tonga DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Chris Jones DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ George Karlaftis DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Daniel Jones QB Passing yards 203.7 130-285 Pass attempts 30.3 22-43 Completions 19.7 14-28 Passing TDs 1.33 74% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 18.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Jonathan Taylor RB Rushing yards 63.8 28-135 Carries 16.0 10-22 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 23.1 4-37 Receptions 2.8 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alec Pierce WR Receiving yards 57.8 24-94 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Tyler Warren TE Receiving yards 37.1 12-65 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Josh Downs WR Receiving yards 31.3 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Keenan Allen WR Receiving yards 30.5 -- Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ D.J. Giddens RB Rushing yards 29.5 -- Carries 8.3 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mo Alie-Cox TE Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Camryn Bynum DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Ahmad Gardner DB Tackles 3.4 2-5 Grover Stewart DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ Arden Key DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Laiatu Latu DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ DeForest Buckner DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Kansas City Chiefs 6 days, Indianapolis Colts 7 days Kansas City Chiefs recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Indianapolis Colts recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ----- ------ 2025 IND 20 KC 23 KC ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7383