New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams NFL, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 22, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Los Angeles Rams by 14.1 points, giving them a 82% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 61.1 combined points, with Los Angeles Rams at 37.7 and New York Giants at 23.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Los Angeles Rams favored by 8.5 points, a 5.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Los Angeles Rams's margin lands between -2.7 and +31.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Los Angeles Rams -14.1 / New York Giants +14.1 Moneyline: Los Angeles Rams -464 / New York Giants +464 Win probability: Los Angeles Rams 82.3% / New York Giants 17.7% Projected total: 61.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Los Angeles Rams: 1619.8, New York Giants: 1410.2 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Los Angeles Rams New York Giants ------------------------- ---------------- --------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.1 -3.4 home_field_vector -0.9 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 +1.5 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Los Angeles Rams -8.5 / New York Giants +8.5 Consensus moneyline: Los Angeles Rams -380 / New York Giants +300 Market no-vig win probability: Los Angeles Rams 76.0% / New York Giants 24.0% Spread range across books: -9.5 to -8.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.384779+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Los Angeles Rams EV% New York Giants EV% ---------- ---------------- ----- --------------- ------ draftkings -380 +3.9% +300 -29.1% Spread: Book Los Angeles Rams New York Giants ---------- ---------------- --------------- betus -9.5 (-110) +9.5 (-110) draftkings -8.5 (-110) +8.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Los Angeles Rams -9.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -8.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New York Giants 23.5 -- Los Angeles Rams 37.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Los Angeles Rams margin -2.7 +5.1 +14.2 +23.3 +31.8 Total points 43.9 52.0 61.2 70.4 78.4 Probability Los Angeles Rams covers the market spread: 66.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOS ANGELES RAMS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Matthew Stafford QB Passing yards 308.5 235-390 Pass attempts 37.5 30-43 Completions 22.9 18-26 Passing TDs 2.62 93% 1+, 74% 2+ Rushing yards 7.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Puka Nacua WR Rushing yards 11.1 3-19 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 96.3 62-170 Receptions 6.7 4-9 Receiving TDs 1.04 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Kyren Williams RB Rushing yards 78.1 43-101 Carries 13.7 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 27.2 8-39 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Blake Corum RB Rushing yards 66.4 31-111 Carries 11.1 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Davante Adams WR Receiving yards 54.0 20-88 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Colby Parkinson TE Receiving yards 47.0 22-68 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Tyler Higbee TE Receiving yards 38.2 13-68 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Jordan Whittington WR Rushing yards 4.3 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 24.8 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kamren Curl DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Trent McDuffie DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Poona Ford DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Kobie Turner DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Myles Garrett DL Sacks 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Braden Fiske DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ NEW YORK GIANTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaxson Dart QB Passing yards 194.6 121-268 Pass attempts 28.9 21-36 Completions 18.8 14-25 Passing TDs 0.99 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 36.3 18-60 Rushing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Malik Nabers WR Receiving yards 63.5 30-153 Receptions 4.2 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Darius Slayton WR Receiving yards 51.0 17-81 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Cam Skattebo RB Rushing yards 49.9 14-83 Carries 12.5 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 24.0 5-43 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Darnell Mooney WR Receiving yards 40.5 6-64 Receptions 2.6 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Theo Johnson TE Receiving yards 39.9 14-63 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Isaiah Likely TE Receiving yards 32.2 7-59 Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Najee Harris RB Rushing yards 25.6 -- Carries 7.3 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tremaine Edmunds LB Tackles 4.7 3-7 Tyler Nubin DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Shelby Harris DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ D.J. Reader DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Brian Burns LB Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Darius Alexander DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Los Angeles Rams 11 days, New York Giants 8 days Los Angeles Rams recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games New York Giants recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2023 LA 26 NYG 25 LA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7384