Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 25, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Green Bay Packers by 6.6 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.8 combined points, with Green Bay Packers at 27.2 and Atlanta Falcons at 20.6. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Green Bay Packers by 7.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Green Bay Packers's margin lands between -10.6 and +23.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Green Bay Packers -6.6 / Atlanta Falcons +6.6 Moneyline: Green Bay Packers -205 / Atlanta Falcons +205 Win probability: Green Bay Packers 67.2% / Atlanta Falcons 32.8% Projected total: 47.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Green Bay Packers: 1529.8, Atlanta Falcons: 1465.2 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Green Bay Packers Atlanta Falcons ------------------------- ----------------- --------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.5 +1.7 home_field_vector +9.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +19.5 +5.1 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Green Bay Packers -7.5 / Atlanta Falcons +7.5 Consensus moneyline: Green Bay Packers -360 / Atlanta Falcons +285 Market no-vig win probability: Green Bay Packers 75.1% / Atlanta Falcons 24.9% Spread range across books: -7.5 to -7.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.393000+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Green Bay Packers EV% Atlanta Falcons EV% ---------- ----------------- ------ --------------- ------ draftkings -360 -14.1% +285 +26.1% Spread: Book Green Bay Packers Atlanta Falcons ---------- ----------------- --------------- betus -7.5 (-110) +7.5 (-110) draftkings -7.5 (-110) +7.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Green Bay Packers -7.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Atlanta Falcons 20.6 -- Green Bay Packers 27.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Green Bay Packers margin -10.6 -2.5 +6.4 +15.5 +23.8 Total points 30.3 38.5 47.7 57.2 65.4 Probability Green Bay Packers covers the market spread: 46.9% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GREEN BAY PACKERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jordan Love QB Passing yards 210.0 137-293 Pass attempts 30.3 22-42 Completions 18.3 12-24 Passing TDs 1.83 84% 1+, 55% 2+ Rushing yards 17.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Jacobs RB Rushing yards 57.9 22-90 Carries 13.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Christian Watson WR Receiving yards 51.9 18-85 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Tucker Kraft TE Receiving yards 47.4 22-97 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Jayden Reed WR Rushing yards 13.2 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.4 6-49 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Matthew Golden WR Rushing yards 9.2 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 33.3 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jonnu Smith TE Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zaire Franklin LB Tackles 4.6 3-7 Evan Williams DB Tackles 4.1 3-5 Javon Hargrave DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Karl Brooks DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Micah Parsons LB Sacks 1.25 71% 1+, 36% 2+ Devonte Wyatt DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ATLANTA FALCONS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tua Tagovailoa QB Passing yards 183.6 110-241 Pass attempts 27.1 19-34 Completions 17.8 12-23 Passing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 4.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bijan Robinson RB Rushing yards 72.5 37-126 Carries 16.0 10-20 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 32.2 13-65 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Drake London WR Receiving yards 66.3 32-121 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Kyle Pitts TE Receiving yards 47.7 22-100 Receptions 4.5 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Jahan Dotson WR Receiving yards 28.2 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Olamide Zaccheaus WR Rushing yards 6.1 1-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 24.6 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Brian Robinson RB Rushing yards 23.6 -- Carries 6.5 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 4.9 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Woerner TE Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mike Hughes DB Tackles 4.5 3-6 Divine Deablo LB Tackles 4.0 2-7 Christian Harris LB Tackles 1.5 -- Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ James Pearce LB Sacks 1.12 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Zach Harrison DL Sacks 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Green Bay Packers 4 days, Atlanta Falcons 4 days Green Bay Packers recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Atlanta Falcons recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2023 GB 24 ATL 25 ATL ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7385