Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Buffalo Bills by 8.8 points, giving them a 72% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 38.8 combined points, with Buffalo Bills at 23.8 and Los Angeles Chargers at 14.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Buffalo Bills favored by 3.0 points, a 5.8-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Buffalo Bills's margin lands between -8.1 and +26.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Buffalo Bills -8.8 / Los Angeles Chargers +8.8 Moneyline: Buffalo Bills -261 / Los Angeles Chargers +261 Win probability: Buffalo Bills 72.3% / Los Angeles Chargers 27.7% Projected total: 38.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Buffalo Bills: 1615.2, Los Angeles Chargers: 1526.4 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Buffalo Bills Los Angeles Chargers ------------------------- ------------- -------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -0.1 +2.8 home_field_vector +6.8 -- neutral_script_efficiency +18.6 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Buffalo Bills -3.0 / Los Angeles Chargers +3.0 Consensus moneyline: Buffalo Bills -162 / Los Angeles Chargers +136 Market no-vig win probability: Buffalo Bills 59.3% / Los Angeles Chargers 40.7% Spread range across books: -3.0 to -3.0 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.399161+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Buffalo Bills EV% Los Angeles Chargers EV% ---------- ------------- ------ -------------------- ------ draftkings -162 +16.9% +136 -34.5% Spread: Book Buffalo Bills Los Angeles Chargers ---------- ------------- -------------------- draftkings -3.0 (-110) +3.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Buffalo Bills -2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Los Angeles Chargers 14.9 -- Buffalo Bills 23.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- Buffalo Bills margin -8.1 -0.1 +8.8 +17.9 +26.1 Total points 20.8 29.5 38.8 48.0 56.3 Probability Buffalo Bills covers the market spread: 66.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BUFFALO BILLS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Josh Allen QB Passing yards 194.7 122-254 Pass attempts 30.6 22-38 Completions 20.8 15-26 Passing TDs 1.05 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 33.7 15-54 Rushing TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ James Cook RB Rushing yards 62.9 27-105 Carries 14.5 9-24 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Khalil Shakir WR Receiving yards 48.0 14-83 Receptions 4.9 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Dalton Kincaid TE Receiving yards 43.4 18-72 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ D.J. Moore WR Rushing yards 6.6 0-13 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 39.8 6-75 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Dawson Knox TE Receiving yards 35.8 10-61 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Ray Davis RB Rushing yards 34.7 -- Carries 7.5 2-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.1 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Keon Coleman WR Receiving yards 28.7 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Dee Alford DB Tackles 4.4 3-7 Geno Stone DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Deone Walker DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ T.J. Sanders DL Tackles 1.1 1-1 Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Ed Oliver DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Gregory Rousseau DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Justin Herbert QB Passing yards 163.2 90-223 Pass attempts 28.4 20-34 Completions 18.2 12-23 Passing TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Rushing yards 26.6 8-47 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Omarion Hampton RB Rushing yards 58.3 23-100 Carries 12.6 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 24.7 6-46 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Quentin Johnston WR Receiving yards 46.9 13-84 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Ladd McConkey WR Receiving yards 40.0 6-71 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Keaton Mitchell RB Rushing yards 35.9 0-65 Carries 6.4 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tre Harris WR Receiving yards 31.0 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Njoku TE Receiving yards 26.1 0-48 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Charlie Kolar TE Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Daiyan Henley LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Tony Jefferson DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Teair Tart DL Tackles 2.3 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Dalvin Tomlinson DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Tuli Tuipulotu LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Justin Eboigbe DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Buffalo Bills 10 days, Los Angeles Chargers 7 days Buffalo Bills recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Los Angeles Chargers recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 BUF 24 LAC 22 BUF ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7386