New York Jets at Detroit Lions NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Detroit Lions by 14.3 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.5 combined points, with Detroit Lions at 32.2 and New York Jets at 18.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Detroit Lions favored by 9.5 points, a 4.8-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Detroit Lions's margin lands between -2.5 and +31.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Thomas Harper (Out), T'Vondre Sweat (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Detroit Lions -14.3 / New York Jets +14.3 Moneyline: Detroit Lions -474 / New York Jets +474 Win probability: Detroit Lions 82.6% / New York Jets 17.4% Projected total: 50.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Detroit Lions: 1564.0, New York Jets: 1340.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Detroit Lions New York Jets ------------------------- ------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.3 +3.3 home_field_vector +7.1 -- neutral_script_efficiency -15.1 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Detroit Lions -9.5 / New York Jets +9.5 Consensus moneyline: Detroit Lions -425 / New York Jets +330 Market no-vig win probability: Detroit Lions 77.7% / New York Jets 22.3% Spread range across books: -9.5 to -9.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.413885+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Detroit Lions EV% New York Jets EV% ---------- ------------- ----- ------------- ------ draftkings -425 +2.0% +330 -25.1% Spread: Book Detroit Lions New York Jets ---------- ------------- ------------- draftkings -9.5 (-110) +9.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Detroit Lions -9.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -9.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New York Jets 18.0 -- Detroit Lions 32.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Detroit Lions margin -2.5 +5.5 +14.1 +23.3 +31.4 Total points 32.8 41.1 50.1 59.4 67.2 Probability Detroit Lions covers the market spread: 64.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DETROIT LIONS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jared Goff QB Passing yards 265.8 193-322 Pass attempts 35.8 28-45 Completions 22.6 17-29 Passing TDs 2.18 89% 1+, 64% 2+ Rushing yards 9.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jameson Williams WR Rushing yards 2.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 82.2 48-121 Receptions 5.1 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Receiving yards 79.3 45-132 Receptions 5.7 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jahmyr Gibbs RB Rushing yards 66.2 31-146 Carries 13.4 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 37.4 18-76 Receptions 4.0 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Isiah Pacheco RB Rushing yards 49.7 14-69 Carries 11.0 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 21.0 2-38 Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Sam LaPorta TE Receiving yards 43.4 18-74 Receptions 4.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Isaac TeSlaa WR Receiving yards 33.5 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Brock Wright TE Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Jack Campbell LB Tackles 5.3 4-8 Devin White LB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Alim McNeill DL Tackles 1.1 1-1 Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Aidan Hutchinson DL Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ D.J. Wonnum LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ NEW YORK JETS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Geno Smith QB Passing yards 217.6 144-288 Pass attempts 31.1 23-41 Completions 20.8 15-28 Passing TDs 1.68 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 9.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Garrett Wilson WR Receiving yards 67.4 33-104 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.96 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Breece Hall RB Rushing yards 56.0 20-84 Carries 14.4 9-18 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 23.7 4-48 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Adonai Mitchell WR Receiving yards 47.3 13-84 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Mason Taylor TE Receiving yards 30.5 5-49 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Braelon Allen RB Rushing yards 23.0 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Jarvis Brownlee DB Tackles 4.3 3-6 Dane Belton DB Tackles 4.3 3-6 Kingsley Enagbare DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ T'Vondre Sweat DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Will McDonald DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Joseph Ossai DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Detroit Lions 10 days, New York Jets 7 days Detroit Lions recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games New York Jets recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status -------------- --- ---- ------------ Thomas Harper DB DET Out T'Vondre Sweat DL NYJ Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7388