Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Houston Texans by 6.4 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.1 combined points, with Indianapolis Colts at 22.0 and Houston Texans at 28.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Houston Texans favored by 1.5 points, a 4.9-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Indianapolis Colts's margin lands between -23.4 and +11.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Indianapolis Colts +6.4 / Houston Texans -6.4 Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts +200 / Houston Texans -200 Win probability: Indianapolis Colts 33.3% / Houston Texans 66.7% Projected total: 50.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Indianapolis Colts: 1459.4, Houston Texans: 1615.9 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans ------------------------- ------------------ -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.4 +1.6 home_field_vector +8.1 -- neutral_script_efficiency -0.2 +6.8 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Indianapolis Colts +1.5 / Houston Texans -1.5 Consensus moneyline: Indianapolis Colts +105 / Houston Texans -125 Market no-vig win probability: Indianapolis Colts 46.8% / Houston Texans 53.2% Spread range across books: +1.5 to +1.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.418936+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Indianapolis Colts EV% Houston Texans EV% ---------- ------------------ ------ -------------- ------ draftkings +105 -31.7% -125 +20.0% Spread: Book Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans ---------- ------------------ -------------- betus +1.5 (-105) -1.5 (-115) draftkings +1.5 (-110) -1.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Houston Texans 28.3 -- Indianapolis Colts 22.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Indianapolis Colts margin -23.4 -15.4 -6.4 +2.7 +11.0 Total points 32.7 41.1 50.4 59.5 67.8 Probability Indianapolis Colts covers the market spread: 35.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Daniel Jones QB Passing yards 202.0 129-283 Pass attempts 30.3 22-43 Completions 19.7 14-28 Passing TDs 1.43 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 17.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Alec Pierce WR Receiving yards 61.1 27-99 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jonathan Taylor RB Rushing yards 60.8 25-128 Carries 16.0 10-22 Rushing TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 22.1 3-35 Receptions 2.8 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Downs WR Receiving yards 33.1 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Keenan Allen WR Receiving yards 32.2 -- Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Warren TE Receiving yards 30.0 4-53 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ D.J. Giddens RB Rushing yards 28.2 -- Carries 8.3 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mo Alie-Cox TE Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Camryn Bynum DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Ahmad Gardner DB Tackles 3.4 2-5 Grover Stewart DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ Arden Key DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Laiatu Latu DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ DeForest Buckner DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ HOUSTON TEXANS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- C.J. Stroud QB Passing yards 260.8 188-307 Pass attempts 32.2 24-40 Completions 19.4 14-23 Passing TDs 1.21 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards 8.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Nico Collins WR Receiving yards 74.7 41-112 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Woody Marks RB Rushing yards 50.8 15-78 Carries 14.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 10.3 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Dalton Schultz TE Receiving yards 46.3 21-76 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Jaylin Noel WR Rushing yards 2.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 43.5 10-77 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Xavier Hutchinson WR Rushing yards 8.3 6-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 43.2 9-73 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Montgomery RB Rushing yards 34.5 -- Carries 8.5 3-10 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 13.7 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Foster Moreau TE Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reed Blankenship DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Kamari Lassiter DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Tommy Togiai DL Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Sheldon Rankins DL Tackles 1.8 1-2 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Danielle Hunter DL Sacks 1.12 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Will Anderson DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Indianapolis Colts 7 days, Houston Texans 7 days Indianapolis Colts recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Houston Texans recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 IND 30 HOU 38 HOU 2025 HOU 20 IND 16 HOU 2024 IND 20 HOU 23 HOU 2024 HOU 29 IND 27 HOU 2023 HOU 23 IND 19 HOU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7389