New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Jacksonville Jaguars by 1.3 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.7 combined points, with Jacksonville Jaguars at 22.0 and New England Patriots at 20.7. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Jacksonville Jaguars by 1.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Jacksonville Jaguars's margin lands between -15.9 and +18.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -1.3 / New England Patriots +1.3 Moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars -115 / New England Patriots +115 Win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 53.6% / New England Patriots 46.4% Projected total: 42.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Jacksonville Jaguars: 1573.7, New England Patriots: 1602.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Jacksonville Jaguars New England Patriots ------------------------- -------------------- -------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.0 home_field_vector +10.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 +14.4 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 / New England Patriots +1.5 Consensus moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars -118 / New England Patriots -102 Market no-vig win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 51.7% / New England Patriots 48.3% Spread range across books: -1.5 to -1.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.422525+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Jacksonville Jaguars EV% New England Patriots EV% ---------- -------------------- ----- -------------------- ----- draftkings -118 -1.0% -102 -8.1% Spread: Book Jacksonville Jaguars New England Patriots ---------- -------------------- -------------------- betus -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) draftkings -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) Line movement: opened Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 (July 16, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC), now -1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 183 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New England Patriots 20.7 -- Jacksonville Jaguars 22.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Jacksonville Jaguars margin -15.9 -7.8 +1.3 +10.2 +18.4 Total points 25.3 33.5 42.6 51.9 60.0 Probability Jacksonville Jaguars covers the market spread: 49.3% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Trevor Lawrence QB Passing yards 224.2 151-259 Pass attempts 31.5 24-35 Completions 19.8 14-23 Passing TDs 2.47 92% 1+, 71% 2+ Rushing yards 25.1 6-36 Rushing TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Parker Washington WR Rushing yards 0.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 58.2 24-99 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Chris Rodriguez RB Rushing yards 45.0 9-70 Carries 11.7 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 1.6 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jakobi Meyers WR Rushing yards 3.8 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.6 9-64 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Brian Thomas WR Rushing yards 6.1 4-8 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 40.5 6-62 Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Brenton Strange TE Receiving yards 39.9 14-66 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Bhayshul Tuten RB Rushing yards 34.1 -- Carries 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 14.3 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Foyesade Oluokun LB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Montaric Brown DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Travon Walker DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Arik Armstead DL Tackles 1.8 1-2 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Josh Hines-Allen DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ B.J. Green DL Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drake Maye QB Passing yards 223.6 150-321 Pass attempts 29.6 22-40 Completions 19.2 14-27 Passing TDs 1.68 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 36.8 18-58 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ A.J. Brown WR Receiving yards 68.2 34-108 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Romeo Doubs WR Receiving yards 50.9 17-92 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Rhamondre Stevenson RB Rushing yards 45.2 10-71 Carries 11.8 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 23.6 4-40 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ TreVeyon Henderson RB Rushing yards 39.8 4-80 Carries 11.4 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Hunter Henry TE Receiving yards 34.4 9-56 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Demario Douglas WR Rushing yards 3.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 29.9 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Christian Gonzalez DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Marcus Jones DB Tackles 4.0 2-7 Christian Barmore DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Cory Durden DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Dre'Mont Jones LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Milton Williams DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Jacksonville Jaguars 7 days, New England Patriots 7 days Jacksonville Jaguars recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games New England Patriots recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2024 NE 16 JAX 32 JAX ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7390