Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Miami Dolphins by 2.2 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 34.8 combined points, with Miami Dolphins at 18.4 and Kansas City Chiefs at 16.4. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Kansas City Chiefs favored by 7.5 points, a 9.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Miami Dolphins's margin lands between -15.3 and +19.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Miami Dolphins -2.2 / Kansas City Chiefs +2.2 Moneyline: Miami Dolphins -127 / Kansas City Chiefs +127 Win probability: Miami Dolphins 56.0% / Kansas City Chiefs 44.0% Projected total: 34.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 12:01 PM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Miami Dolphins: 1448.4, Kansas City Chiefs: 1491.0 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Miami Dolphins Kansas City Chiefs ------------------------- -------------- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.3 -2.5 home_field_vector +7.2 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 -19.5 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Miami Dolphins +7.5 / Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 Consensus moneyline: Miami Dolphins +330 / Kansas City Chiefs -425 Market no-vig win probability: Miami Dolphins 22.3% / Kansas City Chiefs 77.7% Spread range across books: +7.0 to +7.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T12:20:02.328038+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Miami Dolphins EV% Kansas City Chiefs EV% ---------- -------------- ------- ------------------ ------ draftkings +330 +140.8% -425 -45.6% Spread: Book Miami Dolphins Kansas City Chiefs ---------- -------------- ------------------ betus +7.0 (-105) -7.0 (-115) draftkings +7.5 (-110) -7.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Miami Dolphins +7.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +7.5 (August 30, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kansas City Chiefs 16.4 -- Miami Dolphins 18.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Miami Dolphins margin -15.3 -7.0 +2.0 +11.0 +19.1 Total points 17.2 25.7 34.7 44.2 52.6 Probability Miami Dolphins covers the market spread: 76.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MIAMI DOLPHINS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malik Willis QB Passing yards 163.8 91-299 Pass attempts 21.0 13-32 Completions 15.0 10-24 Passing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Rushing yards 29.5 11-56 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Devon Achane RB Rushing yards 74.2 39-115 Carries 14.2 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 29.2 10-50 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Jaylen Wright RB Rushing yards 36.7 1-74 Carries 8.9 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Greg Dulcich TE Receiving yards 35.8 10-50 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Jalen Tolbert WR Receiving yards 26.7 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Malik Washington WR Rushing yards 8.4 1-15 Rushing TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jordyn Brooks LB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Tyrel Dodson LB Tackles 4.4 3-6 Kenneth Grant DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Chop Robinson LB Tackles 1.5 1-2 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Zach Sieler DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Clelin Ferrell DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Patrick Mahomes QB Passing yards 255.3 182-322 Pass attempts 34.9 27-41 Completions 21.5 16-28 Passing TDs 1.50 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 28.7 10-48 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Kenneth Walker RB Rushing yards 73.1 38-125 Carries 13.9 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 29.7 10-58 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rashee Rice WR Rushing yards 5.7 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Receiving yards 54.9 21-89 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Tyquan Thornton WR Receiving yards 42.8 9-67 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Travis Kelce TE Receiving yards 40.5 15-74 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Xavier Worthy WR Rushing yards 9.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 38.7 5-52 Receptions 3.4 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Emari Demercado RB Rushing yards 37.6 2-74 Carries 5.9 0-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Noah Gray TE Receiving yards 24.9 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nick Bolton LB Tackles 4.7 3-6 Chamarri Conner DB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Khyiris Tonga DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Chris Jones DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ George Karlaftis DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Miami Dolphins 7 days, Kansas City Chiefs 7 days Miami Dolphins recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Kansas City Chiefs recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ----- ------ 2023 MIA 7 KC 26 KC 2023 MIA 14 KC 21 KC ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7391