Tennessee Titans at New York Giants NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors New York Giants by 6.2 points, giving them a 66% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.5 combined points, with New York Giants at 26.8 and Tennessee Titans at 20.7. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: New York Giants favored by 3.0 points, a 3.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New York Giants's margin lands between -11.2 and +23.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New York Giants -6.2 / Tennessee Titans +6.2 Moneyline: New York Giants -196 / Tennessee Titans +196 Win probability: New York Giants 66.2% / Tennessee Titans 33.8% Projected total: 47.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New York Giants: 1410.2, Tennessee Titans: 1335.6 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New York Giants Tennessee Titans ------------------------- --------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.5 home_field_vector +0.5 -- neutral_script_efficiency +1.5 -3.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: New York Giants -3.0 / Tennessee Titans +3.0 Consensus moneyline: New York Giants -166 / Tennessee Titans +140 Market no-vig win probability: New York Giants 60.0% / Tennessee Titans 40.0% Spread range across books: -3.0 to -3.0 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.444140+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book New York Giants EV% Tennessee Titans EV% ---------- --------------- ----- ---------------- ------ draftkings -166 +6.1% +140 -19.0% Spread: Book New York Giants Tennessee Titans ---------- --------------- ---------------- betus -3.0 (-120) +3.0 (+100) draftkings -3.0 (-115) +3.0 (-105) Line movement: opened New York Giants -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Tennessee Titans 20.7 -- New York Giants 26.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- New York Giants margin -11.2 -3.0 +6.1 +15.2 +23.2 Total points 30.0 38.3 47.7 56.5 64.8 Probability New York Giants covers the market spread: 59.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW YORK GIANTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaxson Dart QB Passing yards 217.9 145-301 Pass attempts 28.9 21-36 Completions 18.8 14-25 Passing TDs 1.12 67% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards 40.7 22-67 Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Malik Nabers WR Receiving yards 60.0 26-145 Receptions 4.2 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Theo Johnson TE Receiving yards 53.7 28-84 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Cam Skattebo RB Rushing yards 51.0 16-85 Carries 12.5 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 24.5 5-44 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Darius Slayton WR Receiving yards 48.2 14-76 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Isaiah Likely TE Receiving yards 43.4 18-79 Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Darnell Mooney WR Receiving yards 38.3 4-61 Receptions 2.6 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Najee Harris RB Rushing yards 26.1 -- Carries 7.3 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tremaine Edmunds LB Tackles 4.7 3-7 Tyler Nubin DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Shelby Harris DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ D.J. Reader DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Brian Burns LB Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Darius Alexander DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ TENNESSEE TITANS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cameron Ward QB Passing yards 204.3 131-285 Pass attempts 31.1 23-44 Completions 19.6 14-28 Passing TDs 1.31 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 20.6 2-36 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Tony Pollard RB Rushing yards 75.3 40-136 Carries 13.8 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Wan'Dale Robinson WR Rushing yards 1.8 0-3 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 63.0 29-115 Receptions 5.7 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Calvin Ridley WR Receiving yards 49.3 15-96 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Bellinger TE Receiving yards 38.5 13-69 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Tyjae Spears RB Rushing yards 38.0 2-62 Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 28.1 9-51 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gunnar Helm TE Receiving yards 30.9 5-52 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Cedric Gray LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Erick Hallett DB Tackles 4.1 3-7 Alontae Taylor DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Marcus Harris DB Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Jeffery Simmons DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ John Franklin-Myers DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: New York Giants 6 days, Tennessee Titans 7 days New York Giants recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Tennessee Titans recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7392