Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Pittsburgh Steelers by 3.3 points, giving them a 59% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.4 combined points, with Pittsburgh Steelers at 24.2 and Cincinnati Bengals at 21.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Cincinnati Bengals favored by 1.5 points, a 4.8-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Pittsburgh Steelers's margin lands between -14.1 and +20.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.3 / Cincinnati Bengals +3.3 Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers -144 / Cincinnati Bengals +144 Win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 59.0% / Cincinnati Bengals 41.0% Projected total: 45.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Pittsburgh Steelers: 1510.9, Cincinnati Bengals: 1475.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals ------------------------- ------------------- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.2 home_field_vector +3.6 -- neutral_script_efficiency -9.5 +2.1 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 / Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 Consensus moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers +105 / Cincinnati Bengals -125 Market no-vig win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 46.8% / Cincinnati Bengals 53.2% Spread range across books: +1.5 to +1.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.407232+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Pittsburgh Steelers EV% Cincinnati Bengals EV% ---------- ------------------- ------ ------------------ ------ draftkings +105 +20.9% -125 -26.1% Spread: Book Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals ---------- ------------------- ------------------ betus +1.5 (-120) -1.5 (+100) draftkings +1.5 (-110) -1.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Cincinnati Bengals 21.0 -- Pittsburgh Steelers 24.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Pittsburgh Steelers margin -14.1 -5.8 +3.2 +12.2 +20.4 Total points 27.8 36.0 45.0 54.4 62.9 Probability Pittsburgh Steelers covers the market spread: 63.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PITTSBURGH STEELERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Aaron Rodgers QB Passing yards 219.0 146-302 Pass attempts 31.9 24-43 Completions 20.2 14-28 Passing TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rushing yards 10.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jaylen Warren RB Rushing yards 61.7 26-108 Carries 12.5 7-16 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 23.8 5-42 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Rico Dowdle RB Rushing yards 48.7 13-72 Carries 12.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 25.1 6-46 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DK Metcalf WR Receiving yards 47.6 14-86 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Pat Freiermuth TE Receiving yards 45.0 19-73 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Darnell Washington TE Receiving yards 44.1 19-71 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Pittman WR Receiving yards 30.5 -- Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Roman Wilson WR Receiving yards 28.8 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ DeShon Elliott DB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Jaquan Brisker DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Cameron Heyward DL Tackles 3.1 2-5 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Yahya Black DL Tackles 2.9 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Highsmith LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Derrick Harmon DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ CINCINNATI BENGALS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Joe Burrow QB Passing yards 263.1 190-371 Pass attempts 32.1 24-43 Completions 21.1 16-29 Passing TDs 2.35 90% 1+, 68% 2+ Rushing yards 13.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Marr Chase WR Rushing yards 5.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 80.9 47-124 Receptions 5.9 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Chase Brown RB Rushing yards 71.7 36-105 Carries 14.1 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 30.7 11-44 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Tee Higgins WR Receiving yards 67.5 34-100 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Samaje Perine RB Rushing yards 49.7 14-83 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 15.4 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Andrei Iosivas WR Rushing yards 5.1 4-6 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.8 7-65 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Mike Gesicki TE Receiving yards 33.7 8-59 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Drew Sample TE Receiving yards 16.3 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Battle DB Tackles 4.4 3-6 Bryan Cook DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Boye Mafe LB Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Dexter Lawrence DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Myles Murphy DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jonathan Allen DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Pittsburgh Steelers 7 days, Cincinnati Bengals 7 days Pittsburgh Steelers recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Cincinnati Bengals recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 CIN 12 PIT 34 PIT 2025 PIT 31 CIN 33 CIN 2024 CIN 19 PIT 17 CIN 2024 PIT 44 CIN 38 PIT 2023 CIN 11 PIT 34 PIT ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7393