Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Seattle Seahawks by 10.7 points, giving them a 76% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.0 combined points, with Washington Commanders at 18.1 and Seattle Seahawks at 28.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Seattle Seahawks favored by 3.5 points, a 7.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Washington Commanders's margin lands between -28.2 and +6.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Rachaad White (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Washington Commanders +10.7 / Seattle Seahawks -10.7 Moneyline: Washington Commanders +319 / Seattle Seahawks -319 Win probability: Washington Commanders 23.9% / Seattle Seahawks 76.1% Projected total: 47.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Washington Commanders: 1455.1, Seattle Seahawks: 1694.5 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Washington Commanders Seattle Seahawks ------------------------- --------------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.7 +2.9 home_field_vector +7.7 -- neutral_script_efficiency +0.0 +5.3 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Washington Commanders +3.5 / Seattle Seahawks -3.5 Consensus moneyline: Washington Commanders +154 / Seattle Seahawks -185 Market no-vig win probability: Washington Commanders 37.8% / Seattle Seahawks 62.2% Spread range across books: +3.5 to +3.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.450061+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Washington Commanders EV% Seattle Seahawks EV% ---------- --------------------- ------ ---------------- ------ draftkings +154 -39.3% -185 +17.3% Spread: Book Washington Commanders Seattle Seahawks ---------- --------------------- ---------------- betus +3.5 (-110) -3.5 (-110) draftkings +3.5 (-110) -3.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Washington Commanders +3.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Seattle Seahawks 28.9 -- Washington Commanders 18.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Washington Commanders margin -28.2 -19.9 -10.8 -1.9 +6.4 Total points 29.5 37.7 46.9 56.3 64.7 Probability Washington Commanders covers the market spread: 28.8% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Daniels QB Passing yards 191.6 118-250 Pass attempts 28.5 20-36 Completions 17.6 12-23 Passing TDs 1.02 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 37.3 19-58 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Terry McLaurin WR Receiving yards 58.2 24-75 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Stefon Diggs WR Receiving yards 49.3 15-94 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Chigoziem Okonkwo TE Receiving yards 39.7 14-61 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB Rushing yards 37.1 2-64 Carries 11.3 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Receiving yards 12.8 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rachaad White RB Rushing yards 29.5 -- Carries 8.8 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 11.2 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ John Bates TE Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Nick Cross DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Jeremy Reaves DB Tackles 4.0 2-5 Javon Kinlaw DL Tackles 2.7 2-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tim Settle DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Odafe Oweh LB Sacks 1.19 70% 1+, 33% 2+ Dorance Armstrong DL Sacks 0.92 60% 1+, 23% 2+ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Sam Darnold QB Passing yards 257.2 184-345 Pass attempts 30.9 23-38 Completions 19.9 14-24 Passing TDs 1.64 81% 1+, 49% 2+ Rushing yards 13.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Rushing yards 7.7 2-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 74.6 41-124 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Zach Charbonnet RB Rushing yards 57.4 22-92 Carries 11.5 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 20.4 1-28 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cooper Kupp WR Receiving yards 44.3 10-64 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Rashid Shaheed WR Rushing yards 8.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.7 7-72 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ A.J. Barner TE Receiving yards 37.0 11-54 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Eric Saubert TE Receiving yards 13.0 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ernest Jones LB Tackles 4.6 3-8 Nick Emmanwori DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Leonard Williams DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Byron Murphy DL Tackles 1.8 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Demarcus Lawrence LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Derick Hall LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Washington Commanders 7 days, Seattle Seahawks 7 days Washington Commanders recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Seattle Seahawks recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 SEA 38 WAS 14 SEA 2023 WAS 26 SEA 29 SEA Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------------ Rachaad White RB WAS Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7394