Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 8:05 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors San Francisco 49ers by 13.2 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 56.7 combined points, with San Francisco 49ers at 35.1 and Arizona Cardinals at 21.8. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: San Francisco 49ers favored by 11.5 points, a 1.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, San Francisco 49ers's margin lands between -3.8 and +30.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: San Francisco 49ers -13.2 / Arizona Cardinals +13.2 Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers -418 / Arizona Cardinals +418 Win probability: San Francisco 49ers 80.7% / Arizona Cardinals 19.3% Projected total: 56.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- San Francisco 49ers: 1557.8, Arizona Cardinals: 1376.1 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals ------------------------- ------------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.9 +3.1 home_field_vector +4.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +8.7 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: San Francisco 49ers -11.5 / Arizona Cardinals +11.5 Consensus moneyline: San Francisco 49ers -650 / Arizona Cardinals +470 Market no-vig win probability: San Francisco 49ers 83.2% / Arizona Cardinals 16.8% Spread range across books: -11.5 to -11.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.455617+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book San Francisco 49ers EV% Arizona Cardinals EV% ---------- ------------------- ----- ----------------- ------ draftkings -650 -6.9% +470 +10.0% Spread: Book San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals ---------- ------------------- ----------------- betus -11.5 (-110) +11.5 (-110) draftkings -11.5 (-110) +11.5 (-110) Line movement: opened San Francisco 49ers -11.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -11.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arizona Cardinals 21.8 -- San Francisco 49ers 35.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- San Francisco 49ers margin -3.8 +4.3 +13.3 +22.2 +30.2 Total points 39.3 47.8 57.0 65.9 74.1 Probability San Francisco 49ers covers the market spread: 55.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brock Purdy QB Passing yards 245.7 172-332 Pass attempts 30.6 22-33 Completions 20.4 15-24 Passing TDs 2.18 89% 1+, 64% 2+ Rushing yards 28.6 10-44 Rushing TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Christian McCaffrey RB Rushing yards 67.6 32-115 Carries 14.8 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 33.8 15-53 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ George Kittle TE Receiving yards 64.3 39-109 Receptions 4.7 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Mike Evans WR Receiving yards 58.5 25-103 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Deebo Samuel WR Rushing yards 5.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 52.3 18-77 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Jake Tonges TE Receiving yards 46.3 21-80 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Fred Warner LB Tackles 5.3 4-7 Tatum Bethune LB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Malik Mustapha DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Ji'Ayir Brown DB Tackles 3.4 2-5 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Cam Sample DL Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Keion White DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ARIZONA CARDINALS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jacoby Brissett QB Passing yards 271.2 198-359 Pass attempts 37.8 30-47 Completions 24.2 18-34 Passing TDs 2.00 86% 1+, 59% 2+ Rushing yards 19.8 1-32 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Wilson WR Receiving yards 79.3 45-134 Receptions 5.5 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Marvin Harrison WR Receiving yards 57.4 23-91 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Trey McBride TE Receiving yards 53.8 28-86 Receptions 5.9 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.81 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Kendrick Bourne WR Receiving yards 45.4 11-92 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Allgeier RB Rushing yards 41.2 6-65 Carries 10.6 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mack Wilson LB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Budda Baker DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Roy Lopez DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Darius Robinson DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Sweat LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Walter Nolen DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: San Francisco 49ers 7 days, Arizona Cardinals 7 days San Francisco 49ers recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Arizona Cardinals recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 SF 41 ARI 22 SF 2025 ARI 15 SF 16 SF 2024 SF 24 ARI 47 ARI 2024 ARI 24 SF 23 ARI 2023 SF 45 ARI 29 SF ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7395